DefineRisk

DefineRisk Updated 

Haven't posted on here in a bit. Figured I would share some plays that take advantage of the recent spike in volatility. Airlines have taken an absolute beating, and if you put a gun to my head I would say that will continue. However I don't see it happening at the same pace and we should get a couple green days mixed in. The high IV has provided a very wide...

DefineRisk Updated 

Buy: 3/13 164 Call Sell: 3/13 162 Call Sell: 3/13 149 Put Buy: 3/13 147 Put Net Credit: $45 Max Loss: $155

DefineRisk

Just stay in the green box... Buy: 3/20 415 Call Sell: 3/20 410 Call Sell: 3/20 340 Put Buy: 3/20 335 Put Net Credit: $172 Max Loss: $328

DefineRisk Updated 

BTC-28FEB20 Put Ratio Spread Sell 2x 2/28 6500P for 0.0430 ($315) Buy 1x 2/28 7000P for 0.0700 ($510) Net Credit: 0.0160 ($120) Max Profit (if pinned @ 6500): Approximately 0.0850 ($620) Margin Requirements: 0.2700 ($1975) due to Deribit not having complex orders Break Even: $5,880 This is a neutral to bullish trade. Anything above 7000 and profits are capped...

DefineRisk Updated 

Short 1/31 8500 Call +.25 Delta +.0280 Credit Short 1/31 6000 Put -.20 Delta +.0265 Credit Margin Requirement: .2 BTC Credit Received: .0545 BTC Profit Target: .02725 BTC Expected Move: +/- $1200 End up with a slightly short portfolio delta, essentially delta neutral. Generate over $10 daily positive theta. Look to close at 50% max profit (credit...

DefineRisk Updated 

Buy: 11/22 33p for .49 Sell: 11/22 37p for 1.61 Sell: 11/22 37c for 1.80 Buy: 11/22 41c for .40 Net Credit: $2.52 (Max profit if pinned at $37) BP Reduction: $1.48 As seen on the chart, was able to cash in on an Iron Condor last earnings cycle in a similar range. Going to give myself a little more time to be right and look to pin $37 in the next 30 days. Not...

DefineRisk Updated 

$FIT Iron Fly Buy: 11/22 3p for .13 Sell: 11/22 4p for .55 Sell: 11/22 4c for .44 Buy: 11/22 5c for .19 Net Credit: $0.67 (Max profit if pinned at $4) BP Reduction: $0.33

DefineRisk

Hitting this one again. Worked out well last month. Only widening the strikes a bit to give more room and also increase max profit. This does add risk to the trade however, but with a greater probability of profit. $X Iron Fly Buy: 11/22 8p for .14 Sell: 11/22 11p for 1.08 Sell: 11/22 11c for .64 Buy: 11/22 14c for .07 Net Credit: $1.51 (Max profit if pinned...

DefineRisk

$SPY Put Spread Buy: 11/08 297p for 4.56 Sell: 11/08 292p for 3.11 Net Debit: $1.45 Max Profit: $3.55 45% POP Do not like debit spreads in general but taking my chances on a dip below $295.55 (break even at expiration) at some point in the next 28 days. SPY has seen a massive run in the last two days and we know how Trump tweets and China trade deal cycle work...

DefineRisk Updated 

$X Iron Fly Buy: 10/18 13c for .10 Sell: 10/18 11c for .63 Sell: 10/18 11p for .66 Buy: 10/18 9p for .11 Net Credit: $1.08 (Max Profit if pinned @ $11) BP Reduction: $0.92 (Max Loss) Profit Range of $9.92 - $12.08

DefineRisk Updated 

$CAG Iron Condor Buy: 10/18 32c for .27 Sell: 10/18 31c for .49 Sell: 10/18 27p for .47 Buy: 10/18 26p for .28 Net Credit: $0.41 (Max profit if all expire worthless) Buying Power Reduction: -$0.59 (Max loss on blowout) Profit Range of $26.59 - $31.41 w/ 55% POP at expiration

DefineRisk

$NKE Reverse Iron Condor Sell: 9/27 93c for .38 Buy: 9/27 92.5c for .48 Buy: 9/27 85.5p for .1.25 Sell: 9/27 85p for .1.08 Net Debit: $0.27 (Max Loss) Max Profit: $0.23 (<85.23 or >92.77)

DefineRisk Updated 

Bad news continues to roll in for the company. This support level has been tested many times however the levees are about to break. Bears are going to win this one and take us back to price levels we haven't seen in 2.5 years. Will likely be a bumpy ride on the way down so strap in!

DefineRisk Updated 

I believe we will get another wick higher (still shy of $6k) in the next couple days, however BTC is clearly running out of steam. A sizable, though reasonable (for crypto) retrace of around 20% can be expected. I will be targeting the lower $4700's before looking for the next move higher.

DefineRisk Updated 

ICX providing a nice entry opportunity at this price point. Sitting on support and RSI nearing traditional pivot point. Low risk/high reward opportunity. Potential news catalyst in the works although unconfirmed at this point.

DefineRisk Updated 

I know many people that are very bullish on this project and viewed it as a great buy at nearly 2x this price point. I will leave the FA to them, but from a TA perspective I finally see value in entering here. The r/r is very good at this level and we should see a substantial gain in a few short weeks. Much like the MFT play I posted yesterday, RSI hasn't reached...

DefineRisk Updated 

Opened a small DLT position here. This has room to go down still which is why I am keeping position size small. Nice potential for bounce however in this zone.

DefineRisk

I predict that we will stay within this channel finding support and resistance at each level. This is just for fun and I'm sure will be quickly invalidated. Just dusting off my crystal ball.