Probability: perhaps ~10%, but increasing with every day the US debt ceiling issue remains unresolved
The lower trendline of the current two month uptrend has been tested repeatedly. If we break below ~130 we might see at best further corrections of the upward pushes from August, or at worst the start of a new downtrend if the doubletop formation gets confirmed, somewhere below ~125-120. However, the trend seems still intact for now, so unless some fundamental...