


All things revert to their mean and this market will not be different. Wherever the top is (there is more upside) expect at least 50% of the 40 year move to be the first haircut. Will it fall further than that? It's impossible to say and all the people on TeeVee pretending to be experts don't know either. Be nimble and be ready for anything because when this puppy...
The past few brushes of the 55EMA have resulted in some violent moves to the upside. Future unknown, but hard to argue with a trend like this. If we break it and stay below for 2 days, maybe we have bigger selling.
I love this setup for bounce plays on the indexes.
Looking back on a longer time frame, the trend is there. We have had some pretty substantial pullback along the journey, but the trend has not yet broken.
When the green crosses below the red I get out of long term positions and wait for the trend (green 50day EMA) to resume its climb again before buying back in. You can see that if you followed this logic it will save you from the worst of the selloffs.
This is my favorite trend indicator, it's quite magical. Please note; this is tuned for the indices (specifically /ES). You will need to tweak the envelopes if you desire to use it for individual names.
Not a good look here on the 4 hour chart. Very weak tape and we've got several things working against this one. 1) Double top rejection 2) Broke down through a positive trend line with vigor 3) The 20 crossed up over the 40 which is good, but a tentative move IMO We had buyers at the 1st white box right below the current price and that is still a fresh area of...
SPX reclaimed 3300 on a rather amazing close, and that seemed a nigh impossible feat 4 months ago. Blackrocks's little robot army algos nailed it on the number like a buzzer beater jumper from Jordan (R.I.P. Craig Ehlo www.youtube.com ). Looking on the monthly here, but pretend you don't know what it is. Would you short that structure? I'm all kinds of crazy,...
SPX on the weekly here. This has been a long time coming, that gap was left back in February. Flirted with getting into the gap last week and was rejected hard. Will we do it next week? I still think there is a meltup coming because the Fed hasn't used all that much of the money they have ready. My forecast is well past all time high before the election. Is S&P...
Amazon faded right into a strong demand zone with the market pullback and is currently up 1.88% pre-market this morning. Seeing this is ER week I wouldn't be shocked if 3500 trades if the market remains positive. Fed week is always interesting and can sometimes be crabby (sideways), but Amazon could be a Honey Badger this week. Will be taking a long position at...
FinTwit is alive with "the end is nigh" because we closed below the 21-day MA. The weekly candles paint a different picture though, I still see a well defined trend that hasn't been broken. We'll see if the bears have it right this week!
Keep an eye out here over the next couple of days. Recently bounced off the 50 SMA strongly and looks primed for a run. The market dump today pulled it back into the pattern, would like to see a confirmation break out just to be sure of this move.
Nice bullish wedge looking formation here. There was a lot of strong buying of banks during the rally today, across the board. No idea if the bulls are right on this one, but we'll find out really soon!
Looking at the weekly chart and thinking about potential end of week setups if we get really nasty UE and GDP data today. There was a plethora of buyers at this level and it lines up well with the parallel channel support. Ideally you would wait for price to enter the green box and then exit up to confirm the move. I don't go long unless it proves to me it's...
NFLX has been resilient and remaining near ATH which not surprising with Sugar P's infinite money glitch. However, all good things come to an end, and I think a correction is in the works. Since the market doesn't give a cat's behind about fundamentals we'll ignore those for now. You can see that it's presenting a very valid (IMO) head & shoulders pattern on the...
Twilio is a great platform, but it's still yet another cash burning technology company with a long way to go on being FCF positive. I've certainly seen worse balance sheets, but they have funds and may be able to make it work out over a longer time frame. Last month was one heck of a month for the stock and it's arguably in bubble territory along with many other...
Good support on AMD in the $49 area, fresh demand there for a move up with a ceiling of ~$54 and change. Market action today could push us down to $49 area pretty fast because well, things suck and the market is finally starting to realize it. This is a 2 hour time frame, so it won't take long to play out if it goes this way.
With earnings really kicking in next week the time is ripe for a big move. I don't like to predict prices, I find it introduces bias, so I try hard to stay with trends. If we can clear ~2880 off some good ER or positive press, we could see further upside within the large channel. However, if things start to sour on ER releases, and we break ~2630, I would...