Dr_Roboto

Dr_Roboto Updated 

It is important to step back and look at the big picture sometimes. The NASDAQ is testing the support of the green channel. May see a bounce here, but I think it is more likely that it tests the top of the blue channel in the coming month. Maybe more importantly the black trend line (around 9,500-10,000) looks like a good place to bottom in the near term. Let's...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Here are my core channels and trendlines. NASDAQ looks to be losing support of the blue channel. If so, I see 2 support trend lines: green line around 9500 and the red line around 8750. If we see the same abc correction wave from earlier this year, that will put us right at 8750 and the red trend line.

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Crazy two weeks with some massive price swings. However, all said and done the down trend that started in January is still intact. Big test yesterday of resistance but ultimately failed with the gap up closed and no follow through after Fed rate hike. Looks like a good old pump and dump. The gray region (connects to gap up in 4/21) that I drew seems to be a very...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

If you look back over this long correction since the beginning of the year, every time the price closed with a red candle below the lower bound of the 20 day moving average the price continued to move lower. I don't see why this time is any different. I would expect support at the $380 and maybe down to the $375 level. That would bring the S&P right around the...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

You can see that over the last two days that the S&P is jumped above the 200 day on Wednesday huge rally, which also broke above the April 2021 gap. However, today saw a rejection of the resistance of the down channel that started Jan 2022 ATH. This channel has rejected price solidly 2x times now. The most probable thing would be to see a rejection and to head...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Pattern looking a lot like August. With many traders taking vacation over the next month and lower volume, this would be a good time to see the market rally.

Dr_Roboto

Here is a comparison of the main trading channels for the 1990's run up to the dot com bubble and the 2010's run up to the COVID bubble. We are currently testing the 200-week SMA and at the midline of the green channel (same place as Feb 2001). You can see the top of the blue channel (and bottom of green channel) sitting lower at around 9700, which is the peak in...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Here are the major channels that I am watching for QQQ. You can see that last week we had a strong bounce off the blue channel's support. The blue channel was formed off the low in 2008-2009 and the subsequent massive bull rally for the past 12 years. You can also see that QQQ lost the even stronger bull channel that started in 2016. The question now becomes if...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

After a monstrous rally of 152% off the 2020 COVID low, that NASDAQ is now only 7% above the pre-COVID ATH on 2/19/20. You can see in the chart that the correction has bounced on but ultimately lost all of the major trend lines since 11/22/21. It currently is at one of the last major support lines. You can see the big rally last week was a major test of the...

Dr_Roboto

You think the stock market correction is painful. The bond market is seeing its worse decline since the 1940's. It is down 50% since March 2020. My suggestion is that retirees don't look at their 401k. I sure hope it finds a bottom soon.

Dr_Roboto Updated 

S&P 500 is currently finding support at the bottom of the down channel. It is also the 0.618 fib level. Today's price action is up and trying to bounce off the support line. I personally don't think this is the bottom, but this is an important place to watch. We could get a good rally off this trend line like back in the summer. However, the recent short rally was...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Current price action suggests test of 20 day SMA after finding support at the bottom of the channel and touch off the 200 week SMA (see my other posts on 200 week SMA). The new bullish counter rally is not really confirmed until it can hold above the 20 day and break the blue trend line. A bullish sign would be to break out, retest the 20 and the trend and then...

Dr_Roboto

Pretty simple chart. The S&P has used the 200 week SMA as support for a long time. However, back in 2008, you can see almost the exact same pattern in both price and the RSI. The market went mostly sideways following the 200 week SMA for about 5 months before it eventually crashed. 1D time frame

Dr_Roboto

Looking at the current corrective wave structure, I think that we have another leg or maybe even two down before that market finds a bottom. In Elliott wave theory, wave C is based on the drop of wave A by aligning it to the top of wave B as shown in the chart. The market is currently testing the 0.618 fib level. This is also the bottom of the current down...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Here is a look at the 20 and 200 WEEK moving average on the IVV ticker. Note how the S&P has reliably tested the 200 week MA during strong corrections over the last 12 years or so. Rarely does the price go much below. It also seems reasonable to me that we both get a retest of the June low and a more significant test of the Feb 2020 high. If we see this, then...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

The S&P bounced off the channel support today. It also tested the 1.236 fib extension off the most recent peak. Both signs that a bounce was coming. There is also a gap that looks like it could be filled. In addition, this would be a good place for a test of the 20 day moving average by end of week if not early next week. Real question is will this hold or will we...

Dr_Roboto

Relative movements in price between 2-4pm for the S&P 500 on the 15 minute timeframe. 2-2:15pm: -1.85% by 3pm: +2.38% by 4pm: -3.08% Day ends at -1.68% overall You think that all of your charts and analysis mean something, but at the end of the day the price moves based on what the big trading firms with their trillion dollar portfolios and their algorithms...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

A look at the big picture using 1M timeframe. In an attempt to remove the daily noise in price, you can see that even after a rough 2022 so far that we have barely scratched the surface of how bad it could get. The thing that I noticed is that the current price action looks very similar to April 2001 and March 2008. Looking at all 3 you can see both had a several...