Dukascopy_Analyst

Dukascopy_Analyst

"The evidence is increasingly pointing towards a more resilient consumer, with falling unemployment and rising wages. A continuation of these themes would likely help quell fears over U.S. growth prospects." - ANZ (based on CNBC) Pair's Outlook The Cable took a beating on Friday, as the exchange rate edged closer to the 1.45 psychological level, mostly due to...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"What we are seeing today is a correction after overwhelming selling in the dollar we saw last week. It is just unwinding of positions, not fresh bets against the yen." - Nomura Securities (based on Reuters) Pair's Outlook The Greenback appears to be eager to recover from an almost full week of losses against the Japanese Yen, despite mixed fundamental results...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"If the Fed holds off raising rates, then the USD will be weaker and gold should outperform." - UBS (based on CNBC) Pair's Outlook We are observing some selling pressure for the first time in seven trading days. XAU/USD surged above and closed beyond the August high of the previous year, while surpassing the second monthly resistance at the same time. A...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"We see no compelling reason for more than a normal retracement before bullion resumes an upward move. The rally is underpinned by risk-off sentiment, a weaker dollar and a shift in global monetary policy." - HSBC (based on CNBC) Pair's Outlook Yellow metal remains increasingly buoyant for the moment, given global economic uncertainty and expectations that the...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"The charts suggest the short dollar/yen trade is still the advantageous trend trade." - IG (based on CNBC) Pair's Outlook USD/JPY violated a yet another monthly pivot, closing 110 pips lower yesterday. As a result, there are no more significant supports separating the pair and the 2015 low, which is expected to trigger a bullish reaction that may take us back...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"An abrupt and total interruption to incoming capital flows in response to a 'Brexit' could see decline by as much as 15-20 percent." - Goldman Sachs (based on Reuters) Pair's Outlook GBP/USD is currently retreating from the monthly R1, but the currency pair retains potential to go higher from here. Above 1.4680 dollars the Pound should target the 55-day SMA...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"Expectations are growing by the day that the Fed will not hike again this year given the weaker growth picture and tightening financial conditions." - Bank of New Zealand (based on Bloomberg) Pair's Outlook European common currency continued rallying versus the Greenback on Thursday, by adding 104 extra pips to end the American session at 1.1207. Bottom line:...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"We think China's volatility and its implications for the U.S. are the top risks for gold in 2016." - Barclays (based on CNBC) Pair's Outlook Thursday saw gold prices depreciating on the back of increasing risk appetite across the board. After the bullion met a tough resistance near 1,127 it started to lose value and closed near 1,115 by yesterday evening. On...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"Irrespective of this surprise easing from the BOJ, the yen remains rather undervalued, especially after this knee-jerk fall past 120. It remains to be seen if this yen move is sustainable." - Credit Suisse (based on Reuters) Pair's Outlook Because of BoJ's unexpected announcement USD/JPY covered the distance between the yesterday's close and 120.50 yen a lot...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"Carney's conditions for raising interest rates -- which include growth looking strong enough to eliminate the remaining slack in the economy -- are probably still not met. The recovery still looks very unbalanced." - Capital Economics (based on Bloomberg) Pair's Outlook The Cable soared from 1.4230 yesterday and even punched through the resistance line at...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"There was some short covering in the euro after the inflation data. The numbers are mostly better than expected. The euro was also supported as I sense the market has largely pushed out a March rate hike by the Fed." - Mizuho Bank (based on Bloomberg) Pair's Outlook EUR/USD rallied for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday and touched the closest resistance...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"A lot of investors weren't buying the idea that there were going to be four rate hikes in 2016, and this certainly adds weight to that idea...it gave gold a boost." - OptionSellers.com (based on Wall Street Journal) Pair's Outlook Gold booked another trading session of gains on Wednesday, after the Fed statement indicated lower probability of a rate hike in...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"Overall, the statement reflects the caution that one would expect a central bank to use in the current volatile environment. But the Fed hasn't deviated from its previous message, with future moves in rates remaining in the hands of the incoming data." - ANZ (based on CNBC) Pair's Outlook At the moment, USD/JPY appears to be on its way back to the major...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"On a trade-weighted basis sterling did very well last year and given the concern over inflation and competitiveness, that strength was probably unwelcome." - Societe Generale (based on Reuters) Pair's Outlook Yesterday, the Cable completed a pullback after it had breached the accelerated falling trend-line earlier this week. Accordingly, even though the...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"The Fed is really in a wait-and-see mode. They want to see if everything in the global economy and financial markets is really going to bleed through and affect inflation and their outlook for the economy." - Moody's Analytics (based on Bloomberg) Pair's Outlook A dense and difficult resistance cluster ahead of the spot makes the mid-term bearish scenario...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"The world's economic condition doesn't seem to give the Fed reason to hike rates soon given the growth risks." - OCBC Bank (based on CNBC) Pair's Outlook Gold will likely manage to consolidate above 1,107 on Wednesday, in case it preserves gains of the previous trading session. On Tuesday the precious metal climbed to 1,120 and the next major resistance zone...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"As investors remain focused more on the BOJ meeting this time, we would see the dollar-yen pair to show only a limited reaction (to the Fed statement)." - Barclays (based on Market Watch) Pair's Outlook The USD/JPY managed to erase daily losses on Tuesday, as a strong reading of the US CB Consumer Confidence boosted the American currency. Even though the pair...

Dukascopy_Analyst

"If the Fed sounds too dovish a chord, they'll lose the option to raise rates in March. If the Fed isn't so dovish, it's likely US yields will rise, and the dollar will strengthen." - Sumitomo Mitsui Banking (based on Business Recorder) Pair's Outlook The British currency was able to recover from daily losses and end the day with a rally, with a six-week...