Winter is coming. 1. The -2 level of the Z-Score was a great buying zone during the dot-com bubble and GFC. 2. The market bottom that occurred in the 2022-2023 rate hike cycle also occurred at the -2 level. 3. In the upcoming winter (recession), the Z-score will touch the -2 level again, which will be a buy zone for wave 5 of the NDX.
Conflict with the trendline that created the 18-year altseason and the 21-year altseason.
1. At the time of the dot-com bubble shock and the GFC shock, the NDX index made a low at the 0 sigma level to its high point. 2. While we can't anticipate the high point of the current rally, the current market is a combination of commercial real estate risk and the risk of M7 bubbles. 3. If we return to an average of 0 sigma, such as Dotcom Bubble and GFC, the...