Identification of supply and demand according to wyckoff method. Orange area identifies a wyckoff distribution on the 4-hour timeframe. Phase C intentionally skipped, it is known to be hard to identify. Green area identifies a possible (as in "valid so far") re-accumulation. As a reminder, a re-accumulation looks like a regular accumulation, except it starts...
Mapping out possible bottoms and rebounds. None can guess, but those should give relevant levels to watch. Blue zones are zones where volume has been executed in the past. Brighter zones are focus areas within wide zones. Single lines are prices of interest. Purple are channels of former channels. Red obliques are trendlines descending from the ATH
Technicals and majors technical events. Assuming we keep following a similar scenario, pullback is now in progress, with a maximum target of $7200. It might be lower though, $6800 would be enough to fulfill the scenario. Intended as an illustration of a possible outcome, not necessarily means we will replicate 2014 pattern perfectly. Fractal will be invalidated...
Possible long-term scenario. This would be very typical of an end-of-krach pattern, with a major sell-off into a capitulation, followed by a drop of volatility. From there, an accumulation phase would start, setting up a new uptrend for the years to come. The main signal for this would be marking a higher top after the low volatility phase.
Crossing this small losange area will have us choose between two outcomes: Breaking the red line, breaking the main downtrend setup from December would confirm the bullish momentum re-acquired in the last two weeks. On the other hand breaking the purple line, would break the two-week recovery uptrend and may open a new wave of downside. Upper red oblique...
On arrive en fin de figure de consolidation. On a dessiné un bearish pennant, avec une consolidation sur les volumes qui confirme le pattern. Les probas typiques de ce genre de pattern sont une continuation à la baisse à 55% de chances (les 45% étant partagés entre hausse et poursuite en range). Si on break vers le bas, une première cible sera l'extension de la...