Last analysis played out well, proving the end of multiple wave 5's: Now we are due for a pull back, might be pretty severe due to massive run up. This plan shows first area of interest for buying, if breached will evaluate next possible bounce zone
Looking for 11.2-11.5k target. But need a dip first in the form complex wave 4.
Two possible EW outcomes, assuming we stay BULL
Just throwing this out there so we can watch the progress (or lack thereof). NOTICE how every green candle since the bottom has been retraced, EXCEPT the one pointed out above.
BTC has been climbing for many hours now, needs a retrace. US has news coming with CFTC/SEC meeting that will last most of the day Feb 14th.
Short term EW possibilities. The CFTC meeting on the 14th might determine which direction.
I had the last micro 12345 as ending too soon. Now it is much more clear in regards to the large scale EW
IF the bottom is in, then a .618 retrace should be expected. $7200 also happens to be Monthly Support 1 pivot. Should be good for a bounce for sure, whether it sustains will depend on Monday and US mood.
Overly optimistic, I am sure, BUT: The Elliot Wave puzzle has finally fit into a viable picture for me. The last impulse down fit all EW rules (12345 bing 5-3-5-3-5 subwaves, etc). And based on the positive sentiment from US Senate Hearings, I think we have bottomed. Lets see how this plays out.
If we drop below 8k, then 7k should be a good stopping point. Would be 382 extension for wave 5. Plus Monthly S1 support pivot, which was the low for January. So I am looking for 7k dip, then rise to Monthly Central Pivot at $12k.
Just to throw this out there and see how it plays out.
ETH has been following EW and Fibs very accurately. Waiting to see if current resistance is broken, or causes a pullback. That might determine with IV and V waves play out
ETH following near perfect EW paths for commodities. (w5 is longest) to 4.0 ext of 1-2 fib. If it does it again, it might hit 1170 on this impulse.
1.265 has fib confluences, would be textbook end of wave 5. Assuming fundamentals start changing the next month or so, this looks viable.
If I clone the last 12345 down wave, and assume the small ABC retrace is over, I end up at 9800. Notice the eerie bounce points predicted by the cloned 12345 . I did not reshape the cloned 12345 at all, but it fits almost exactly into established S/R zones
Bounce from bottom was a near perfect 12345 impulse wave, fitting fibs perfectly. This impulse could be larger scale wave 1. Expecting an ABC correction to .618 of the 12345 impulse wave. 618 retrace by the ABC would make for a larger scale wave 2. Lets see how it goes.
BTC has been bouncing between fibs. Light blue are fibs from top to bottom of crash. Purple are fibs of recent climb. $15,500 - 15,750 is the area I am watching