Exercise-Discipline

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

Time to get long EUR. Speculators have turned net long Euros for the first time since 2014 - when ECB started aggressively easing, and EURUSD was above 1.30. Technically: A medium term trendline at 1.10 has been broken. 1.10 psychological round number taken out. Fundamentally: Euro area has large current account surplus vs US - should drive flows...

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

EURUSD and DXY have broken key resistance and support levels respectively. USD will be weaker going forward, as current account differentials force capital outflow from US. Rising UST yields will not help the USD. Therefore, gold has strong bullish technical and fundamental arguments.

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Momentum in Cable has flipped to the upside, breaking a major 2 year downtrend. CFTC data shows speculators still heavily net short GBP. This speculators will get squeezed out, this latest break of 1.30 is just the beginning .

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

Bullish momentum fading. Bearish divergence. This is bullish for EURUSD, bearish for DXY. This is in line with fundamentals, with a June rate hike almost fully priced in to the market.

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Divergence on 4H chart

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Divergence on 15M chart

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SNB's EUR reserves are at record highs. Combined with the 1) political relief in EU 2) improving EZ economic data 3) ECB likely to start tapering QE 4) a huge current account surplus in the Euro area 5) an undervalued EUR cf. long term moving averages 6) correlation of EUR with 'risk-off' macro environment - likely to persist given overvaluation of...

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Divergence on 4H chart

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As in chart

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

Bulls getting exhausted. This was simply a short squeeze with no fundamental catalyst. Strong bearish divergence on 4H chart. Fundamentals should come back into play. Brexit likely to have negative effect on UK growth. Monetary policy divergence vs Fed and global USD shortage remains. Real money will begin to flow out of the UK, serving as the catalyst...

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A good hedge for any long USD and long equity exposure.

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As in chart. Bearish divergence shows exhaustion of bulls and high probability of gap close. Supported by fundamentals: monetary policy divergence remains after today's ECB meeting.

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Inverted head and shoulders may form. Medium to long term, USD is fundamentally bullish based on monetary policy divergence, USD shortage, increasing term premia on US 10Y Treasuries.

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Supported technically and fundamentally.

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Fundamentally: plenty of economic uncertainty in the UK. USD is supported by rising UST yields. Technically: as in chart.

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Wasn't a 'dovish' hike, rather profit taking and Japanese corporate profit repatriation.

Exercise-Discipline Updated 

We are in a downtrend technically and fundamentally.

Exercise-Discipline

Fundamentally USD is still supported. Today the 61.8% retracement offers a good entry.