Exsilium

Exsilium Updated 

Open Order: none Open Position: Long at 0.285 (buy-stop triggered) This morning it was announced that the Saudi's National Commerical Bank will be using RippleNet. This is is a big deal and the 15% jump in price reflected that, triggering my buy-stop at 0.285. This news, and the reflected jump in price, changes everything near term. All counts are now invalid....

Exsilium

Open Order: buy-stop 0.285 Open Position: none Yesterday I noticed a bearish divergence in both Fisher and RSI (purple). There was some chance for a push up so I put in a buy stop order at 0.285 as a breach of the short-term resistance trend-line (green) could have seen a push to 0.31 or higher. There is medium-term support between 0.245 and 0.255. A breach...

Exsilium

Yesterday we saw Wave 3 complete within 0.00016 of Wave 1 1.272 fib extension at 0.25903, and Wave 4 hitting 0.50 fib. Technically speaking, Wave 4 should not retreat into Wave 1 area, but every now and then a fake out happens, or a bunch of orders get triggered which can make it poke momentarily into Wave 1. I do not consider this instance a violation requiring a...

Exsilium

We just finished Wave 5 and are currently in a correction wave. This correction wave hit the 0.382 fib perfectly and is currently range bound in a potential WXY formation. Bitcoin (BTC) and Litecoin (LTC) is currently down 4% and, with the downside potential remaining, there is a high probability of them dragging Ripple (XRP) also. If we extend the larger...

Exsilium Updated 

Two weeks after I exited my position at 0.31601 to re-enter at a lower level I finally am vindicated as price drops to 0.30 overnight. We can expect a retrace up to the 0.31 level, the 0.382 fib of the recent drop. Its possible the retrace will be limited by the HA(P+S1)/2 level at 0.307. Normally I would expect the (P+S1)/2 level to provide short term...

Exsilium

There have been a number of formations broken to the upside over the last 24 hours, including bearish formations such as the Ascending Triangle. There is a confluence of resistance here at 0.354 with the descending trend-line from 6/3 which has been touched 4 times since then making it a pretty strong resistance trend-line. There is also the horizontal resistance...

Exsilium

Yesterday evening I posted a chart in which I called for a break up and down due to the Symmetrical Triangle that had formed and the extremely tight range. The momentum I had thought that break would cause was limited by what is now an Ascending Triangle, and the larger Triangle beyond that. As I write this I can see some momentum picking up to the downside, but...

Exsilium Updated 

Look at the chart. the range has been narrowing for a long time now. There is very clearly a move setting up here, and it should be relatively big.. 0.10 big.

Exsilium

Last night the price broke upward through the descending triangle unexpectedly. This is the problem with chart formations like this; while they normally do one thing or another, there is a chance that the opposite happens, and last night it did. Part of this push upward was due to one of the exchanges shutting down for maintenance. At the very moment the servers...

Exsilium

No support/resistance levels or Elliot Wave analysis today. I want to focus on one simple thing, the Descending Triangle over the last three days that terminates in one day and very likely will break down today. In addition the bullish trend-line (dotted line) from 8/13 broke down yesterday. Here's the funny thing; I exited my position at 0.31601, which......

Exsilium Updated 

The correction target I called for three days ago has been reached. We broke just above the 0.382 fib of the last move downward at 0.31857, as well as the 0.786 fib of Wave A. There is still room for 0.33 and I see indications of some buyers still in the market at this level. I will be looking for an exit today with the goal of buying in again sub-0.25. A 4H RSI...

Exsilium Updated 

Wave 5 has most likely been established at 0.245. That is the 1.0 fib of Wave 4, and is right above the Monthly S4 Pivot Point. Assuming that Wave 5 is complete, this correction wave should retrace to between the 0.382 and 0.5 fibs at 0.319 and 0.341 respectively. If this correction wave is a typical ABC, expect 0.32 -> 0.26 -> 0.34 formation, then a leg down to...

Exsilium

I want to switch gears for a moment and take a look at the larger picture. Since the beginning of Ripples' data (on Bitstamp) the Daily RSI and Daily Fisher have never been this low. Simply put, there is no room for more price declines at this level without at least a few days of upward movement. I am NOT saying to expect a trend reversal, there is simply no...

Exsilium

Normally I would only do one chart a day, and update that chart with additional charts and comments, but the change in direction is significant enough to take another fresh look... The chart I posted this morning did a fake out, hit 0.786 extension of Wave 1 (A) then very quickly reversed with a significant push upward. This would appear to confirm the completion...

Exsilium Updated 

I zoomed in farther than I normally do here because I need a better foundation to find wave structures and being flat so long finding the right 0 is tricky. What I suspect is happening is we are in an ABC correction of this last major push down. The chart you see here is the underlying structure of that ABC, which itself is made up of a combination of Impulse and...

Exsilium

XRP completed the correction wave in the WXY formation (double ABC). It also just broke down through the Ascending Triangle. While normally an Ascending Triangle is bullish, there is way to much selling pressure right now and a rare break down was expected. Its worth noting that the correction wave didnt even make it to the 0.236 fib. The (S2+S3)/2 line is at...

Exsilium Updated 

Sideways movement is exceedingly difficult to chart, so I took a step back and waited for the market to make its move. The last real movement up we were looking at a target of 0.56. Everything is lining up for another test of that level. This is an important level as it has provided both resistance and support over last several months and, assuming my wave count...

Exsilium Updated 

Happy Independence Day America! I was looking for a new entry point yesterday and ended up putting in a limit buy order at 0.48489 which was the 0.5 fib and it got filled. Price continued to go down into Wave 1 territory which was concerning. Wave 4 is not supposed to go into Wave 1 territory but can "slightly", which it did by about 0.008. The underlying...