FederalXBT

FederalXBT Updated 

What does FTX > Luna > Binance all have in common? They have a token that has absolutely no real business model that falters then collapses unless you defend the asset backing your entire operation. Binance's entire operation > force Eth high fees > layer two's > hold off on lightning adoption > coin listers pay Binance a fee to list their "Solution tokens"...

FederalXBT Updated 

I have posted a chart back in May when I was seeing Ethereum & Binance Chain deteriorate, it looks like the final supports are being tested meaning once these are gone the foundation is completely gone. The Ethereum supply has become inflationary due to the incentive to "Stake" Ethereum so the question is always true. Where does the Yield come from?. (New users...

FederalXBT Updated 

Factors listed below Binance losing card deposits / bank transfers has cut the entire liquidity off that binance was using to "market" to new people Binance: Hot Wallet 20 10,977,123.66058318 BNB 45.43435845% Binance: SAFU Wallet 1,364,102.15161748 BNB 5.64602423% The rest of the holders of "BNB" are 400+ accounts holding very similar amounts under the...

FederalXBT

People pricing the market based on "Market Cap" on a new asset class that cannot be valued properly by a "Market Cap" need to check their models, I'm even more convinced something big will happen in 2024 as most Twitter comments (I've read thousands) are waiting for a 2025 (bull market) and think its completely out of the possibilities for the prices I have...

FederalXBT

I have been critical on Ethereum due to a terrible fee model, yield coming from nowhere, countless fraudulent ecosystems run on it. But Ethereum seems to be getting Spot ETF interest from institutions? they're not stupid and my only guess is they want majority control (consensus) over a network in the future and you cannot do this on Bitcoin. Just as Bitcoin...

FederalXBT

Both adhere to the patterns of mass adoption cycles, culminating in a conclusive phase of secular adoption. Bitcoin is now in the Z phase and moving much faster than Gold due to instant allocation ability globally. Welcome to the Z, how high this goes before a cooling off period like gold in 82-02? we're about to find out.

FederalXBT

Three patterns, three possibilities Regardless same direction. Welcome to the last cycle of Bitcoin, remember it while you can. Once institutional adoption is facilitated through spot ETFs, there will be no more significant drawdowns, and there will be no more large parabolic runs, as we have experienced for the last times. Anticipate the culmination of a...

FederalXBT

[ Taking a break on this, but still traditional finance institutions refuse to release the data they have on the supply situation on Bitcoin meaning there's a big multiplier on every $1 that enters Bitcoin. I always do Fundamentals on-chain before drawing macro trends on anything, Bitcoin would have to be the best asset for this as we can see everything...

FederalXBT

Up coming Federal Reserve meeting, there's still underlying inflation in the USA but the amount of interest on debt + Japan buying US debt while their currency is almost completely free falling. Would be one of the worst fiscal policy disasters since 2009. Looking at Japan's society they're completely clueless of how close they are to blowing up.

FederalXBT

I've been watching PYPL for the last year completely free fall out of logic. 1. I don't think PayPal is going bankrupt as they have 435,000,000 Active Accounts 2. They've been hit with the DeFi Fear selling resorting to testing out Ethereum. 3. They're now realizing Ethereum is garbage and makes zero sense meaning PayPal is closer to turning out and adopting a...

FederalXBT Updated 

Every 40+ investor and a pair of eye glasses is pounding the long TLT! call options TLT!. You sure about that? you sure you can handle 4-5 years of a complete dead TLT? Federal Reserve seems to be only interested in bailing out banks collateral directly instead of starting YCC so the TLT traders "bond market is the safest in the world" has just completely...

FederalXBT

Mining Basket Tracker -------------------------- NASDAQ:RIOT NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:WULF NASDAQ:CLSK NASDAQ:IREN --------------------------

FederalXBT Updated 

Pretty cool how gold goes through the tech bubble crash followed by a spot ETF shortly after. bitcoin went through the crypto bubble crash following the same macro falling wedge pattern, if history repeats this move is going to catch majority of bears and bulls off guard here like what happen with gold. could be something to consider what if this time the...

FederalXBT

Money Market Funds are starting the drain Gold is running but so is Bitcoin. Lets see who gets the interest over the next months.

FederalXBT Updated 

The largest support trend is being tested that represents Bitcoin history. I play this with logic not emotion, the L-MACD shown the recent bear market started in APR 2021 followed by a leverage short covering blow off. We have 4 times Bitcoin's price have gravitated towards the Line, each time has resulted in a violent bounce to the upside that gets almost...

FederalXBT

Trying to plan out future cycle movement is hard before on-chain data but if you try to model something you get a movement like this. We will have something like 2012-2015 Consensus in the the market is that the bull market will peak/start in 2025. I find this to mean 2025 will be a year like mid 2013/2019 There is zero chance this bullish on chain data...

FederalXBT

Bitcoin has shown a bounce and accumulation. Ethereum has shown No new accumulation even with the Futures ETF launch. Does this end up taking down the BTC Price? No I suspect the opposite will happen as people bail "Alt coins" "NFTs" "Web3" into all converting to Bitcoin Maxi's when the Ethereum price fails to grow and Bitcoin's price grows. RSI / MACD does not...

FederalXBT Updated 

I'm still feeling like its 2017 again with Bitcoin BUT. When Bitcoin goes through a cycle of NOT retracing to the previous highs it has correlated to extreme buying pressure during the bottoms of the markets. We add this together we get Touches in 2015 + 2022 meaning these were "non parabolic growth cycles" meaning more leverage less demand as the price...