FederalXBT

FederalXBT

Jerome Powell thanks retail for shorting the M2 debasement. Now watch in suspense the next months unfold of non stop SPY rising and the market try to figure out what's going wrong. Welcome to the roaring 23s and welcome to start of the final bubble. Once that 8% gap is taken out I suspect news to start breaking it and the "TLT bulls" will get a shock when...

FederalXBT

I see many many articles circulating the similarities of the 1929 "Super Bubble" and see almost all the information is very miss leading and not accurate at all. We can see the DJI compared to the SPY today is dangerously similar at face value. Enough for anyone with basics to be very nervous about this. Each cycle has a 1st bubble followed by a 2nd bubble then...

FederalXBT

VC's continue to try sell Bitcoin to "prop" up their token to keep interest going. Its not working and at the same time they're losing the only assets that matters, Bitcoin. "BNB" losing power every time Binance tries to do this and they're running low on Bitcoin supply and USDT. Ethereum also mimicking the BNB sell cycle. Once exchanges start to adopt...

FederalXBT

I remember a few months ago there was talk about the Chinese Yuan being the new reserve dollar? Ray Dalio? The China economy looks so far gone its not even a joke anymore Government forcing people to not sell assets including banks / institutions China stimulus debasing the currency parabolically China stock index failing to grow at all China no...

FederalXBT

Aussie Dollar looking extremely weak adding it to the list. Japanese Yen extremely weak China Yuan Extremely weak. There's a problem brewing in Asia / Oceania if the FRED does not start lowering rates you're going currencies like the JPY / CNY / AUD potentially lose 30-70% of its value against the United States Dollar. Japan cannot raise rates due to the...

FederalXBT

Japanese Yen running the risk of entering Hyperinflation like the Argentine Peso thanks to the USA. JPY Used to purchase US Debt while USA has Inflation problem has caused them to purchase more than expected including the FRED running (System Open Market Account (SOMA) (soft YCC) China cannot get growth due to US higher rates slowing business growth...

FederalXBT Updated 

Things are getting interesting in bond land, Japanese central bank balance sheet increasing after 09 to keep US bond yields down is finally starting to show signs of fail. This system is starting to break due to investors losing faith in the system. As faith is lost US bonds are sold, as US bonds are sold Yields go parabolic, Japan has been a US proxy since 09...

FederalXBT

The great power of the Bitcoin ecosystem, where is the hash rate coming from? Miners. And most of these miners have bases in Americas only. Most of the Eurasia / South America / Central America (El Salvador Volcano) are not publicly traded yet or direct government related but I suspect this trend is occurring globally. Forget the Moon race, its the Hash Race....

FederalXBT

I wish there was more data prior to 2012 to data mine but sadly there is not much. But the data we do have is the Hash rate of Bitcoin and BBW. 1. Bitcoin price follows rapid moves in Hash Rate throughout history without fail, think of Bitcoin like the country and the hash rate is the population. Population > growth > adoption > limited space will equate to...

FederalXBT Updated 

SEC has left us with a spot ETF delay for Cathie Wood's fund, but as most are unexperienced this is actually a good thing and ill explain why. 1.ETF Blackrock & Fidelity complained to the SEC that approving one fund at a time could and will lead to market manipulation and to an extent they're correct even though its not fair and the other funds just want to get...

FederalXBT

Its fun to compare bitcoin with Gold as a commodity for the similar attributes but Gold only has a small market cap of 12.928T and is very illiquid. Yes Golds market cap is nowhere near the market cap of Government Bonds. We have a global CPI / inflation problem where "smart money" is getting anti Bonds due to the rising debt and interest rates that eventually...

FederalXBT Updated 

Is it fate or bad luck 2015 Bitfinex liquidity crisis simulated the 2020 liquidity crisis at similar moments on a macro scale? Zooming out on a large time frame the BBW has never been this coiled up since (2016) This movement has to break, and Bitcoin has a nice way of making a smaller triangle within the larger Macro Triangle. Pretty interesting to see how...

FederalXBT

Can't help but notice the incredible amount of people calling for recession this or no recession both on Bloomberg and CNBC using the 10Y -2Y without adjusting it for the money debasement? Could not be more clearer almost all of these "market experts" still living in pre 2008 with their degrees are going to be absolutely obliterated buy the CPI and eventual...

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When using the Vi with the The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output, you get a great trend reading once Bitcoin starts diverging into new trends. Vi alone is not the best to find market tops but when used with the SOPR we can see once the SOPR passes the 50 mark it confirms...

FederalXBT

Just thought I would leave this here to see how it evolves as I don't look at Ethereum much besides the utility of stablecoins. In the past months Bitcoin has hit a macro bottom and completed a pretty good bounce roughly 90% indicating true accumulation + interest and this is before the Spot ETF's had been announced. Ethereum on the other hand had actually...

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Similarities between Japan 1989 & Weimar Germany 1923 could not be more clear. People waiting for the "recession" clueless to the break down of the USD dollar system. --MISCONCEPTIONS-- But the 10Y - 2Y yield!, did you adjust that indicator for the QE / debasement? probably not like every single other economist that refuse to acknowledge Quantitative Easing is...

FederalXBT Updated 

Something that will go unexpected is the Bitcoin miners becoming the new "alt season" in this upcoming bull market, have tried to tell my circle yet they still allocate to alt coins. . waiting for the new NFT rush. These companies own the most bullish asset on the planet, these companies are being priced like Bitcoin is going to 10k what happens if it goes to...

FederalXBT

I don't see much talk about what's really going on behind the scenes with Bitcoin and why the Spot ETF Rush suddenly all happen by multiple parties at the same time. Bitcoiner people never get the real opportunity to step into the real world of how institutions function, behind all the "rigged" arguments they win by staying ahead of the curve and making...