Flash430

Flash430

If this topping pattern in Boeing plays out (potential double top) and we are now in wave c/3 to the downside then this could signal the trade war is going to get very ugly.....potential target in the 250-260$ zone....

Flash430

Break and backtest from underside of long term uptrend suggests possible fall away lower now in a wave iii/c for at least 10% lower

Flash430

Possible H+S top formation in XLE Could lead market to the downside along with XLF which is also about to break a 2+ year uptrend

Flash430

secondary top in place on FOMC now headed down in wave 3 or c towards (beyond?) 2.60s%

Flash430

XF financials/banks ETf on the brink again as it strains to maintain the 2 year+ uptrend from early 2016. Close below 27 area could lead to a swift 8%-10% more downside. Leading the market lower post FOMC as 10s-2s yield curve flattens further

Flash430

Follow up to posts from around a month/6 weeks ago....Italian 10yr yields headed higher to at least 3.80% imo. Currently in a wave iv triangle (just finished c, need to do d then e) before a thrust higher in yield towards target in coming few weeks/months

Flash430

Looking for a minimum 2450 on downside in coming weeks (maybe by end June!) in a c wave although if it turns out to be a third wave lower then it is going much much lower!

Flash430

High beta stocks (small cap and tech etc) are the last bastions of FOMO in this central bank QE and zirp/nirp fuelled blow off bubble in stock markets. Once high beta rolls over the whole market could fall very precipitously (>20%). Looking at a turn/top in IWM imminently.

Flash430

If this EW count on Nasdaq Comp #IXIC is correct then we are very close to (within 1%) of a MAJOR MAJOR TOP..... wave v of v) of 5 of 5) and there is a LONG LONG way to go on the downside.....

Flash430

Looks like we finished wave 2/B higher and now set for a C/3rd leg lower to low 2.60s %

Flash430

With about 90mins left in the session, QQQ is shaping up for a key day bearish reversal after an ATH print and what looks like a complete EW 5 wave count plus diverging RSI. Needless to say the potential downside could be huge.....

Flash430

Could we have a 5th wave top in place in XLK yesterday/today? If so there is a long way to go lower.....

Flash430

Could be turning lower again in a wave iii to 12250 zone at a minimum potentially sub 12000

Flash430

There is a lot of chatter about the first company to potentially reach a $1trn valuation. Apple possibly. Amazon maybe. Which reminded me about a prescient lesson for AMAZON permabulls. Yes, if you had bought twenty years ago you would have made 1000x your money by now. BUT......if you had bought in 1999 you would have had to suffer through a two year sell off...

Flash430

IXIC has made a new ATH by a point or two today but now pulling back. If we stall here then this could result in a huge double top pattern. Significance would be increased on a daily close below neckline with ultimate target for the pattern around 6000 (-20% from current levels)

Flash430

Just updated trading scenario from a month ago (yields at 3% looking for top 3.10-3.20% zone, actual high 3.13%). Recent fall in yields potentially only the first leg lower in a larger drop. Possible H+S top pattern in play on break and close below 2.75% could easily see sub 2.50% and perhaps 2.35% area despite FED next week (expecting +25bps) which should lead to...

Flash430 Updated 

It still looks to me like we have more room on the upside for US 10y yields (bond prices lower) short term. FED tonight probably a wash but a hike in June is locked in currently so expect yields to rise over coming days/weeks until something changes.

Flash430

Already short DOW since January. SPX has been dragged higher kicking and screaming by the NDX/FANG but even SPX now looks like it may be ready to roll over at 2750. Short with stop above 2810 target SUB 2500 coming weeks....