ForexAnalytixPipczar

ForexAnalytixPipczar

The S&P500 (SPX) is at a key resistance level. It is the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the September range, triangle resistance (descending trend line) and also completing an AB=CD equal leg move since September 7th. Intraday RSI has just reached overbought, so it will be interesting if we get a pivot/reversal of a continuation from these levels. A breakout would...

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The 10yr notes market made a big reversal today following the CPI data. And this move could continue following the US retail sales tomorrow as economists are expecting a downtick in US consumer spending. We are far from a reversal, but given the big "outside day" bullish reversal candle near key long term support near the 109'00 level, we could see a much bigger...

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An "Ascending Wedge" is ultimately a bearish reversal pattern, but that doesn't mean that today is the day it breaks. We are at support, and relative strength RSI is pointing lower, but the index may find support ahead of the CPI inflation data next week. The level to be watching is the resistance at the 35053 level, which is the 61.8% retracement that held the...

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The gold market looks like it is developing a descending wedge near term which could spend the next weeks developing below the 1950 level. This would be a compliment to the bullish breakout we are seeing in the US Dollar index near term. Last week the Gold market respected the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1948, and despite the slight break of the 1950 level, the...

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The DXY daily chart is breaking out, and the extensions reach for 105.48 (38% retrace) and 106.08 (127% ext) over time.

ForexAnalytixPipczar

The US Dollar showed a reversal following the S&P PMI’s today, this was following weak Eurozone and UK PMI’s earlier today. This does suggest US “exceptionalism” may be coming to an end (for now) and that the US could suffer the same fate as the rest of the world. This move comes just before the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will showcase Federal Reserve Chair...

ForexAnalytixPipczar

I have attached a tweet to my chart explaining the channel support and 200dma before we bounced today.

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Crude breakdown has a couple implications: 1. Lower low. 2. 38% retrace is at 78.09 3. USDCAD has broken new trend highs and well above 200dma.

ForexAnalytixPipczar

We are into some key support here for the $SPX. It's big and I think we will need a couple tries to get below it if the bears are up for it. But being short here risk/reward is questionable now.

ForexAnalytixPipczar

Ahead of the Bank of England rate decision tomorrow the GBPUSD has slumped to the 1.2700 level, and more specifically channel support at 1.2680. This is a key support ahead of the bank of England rate decision tomorrow. The fall has been fairly aggressive since the 1.3100's so any rally attempt following a hike (25bps or a 50bps with a dovish slant) may find...

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How I see (and am trading) the USDCAD, if only crude would cooperate here (lower) The channel support hold at 1.3100 was the key pivot last couple weeks.

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Gartley but more likely a butterfly. A move above the 1.3330 level would give me confidence a butterfly is developing.

ForexAnalytixPipczar

The USDJPY stalled at the 38% retracement today at 140.25 which could be the top of the bear flag pattern. Also, the 50dma is also near the highs today as well. A move back below the 139.00 would suggest that the pair will revisit the 200dma and possibly lower. Also to note, the Bank of Japan meeting is next week and there is speculation of a possible change in...

ForexAnalytixPipczar

Don't forget, no matter what you do in the forex market this week, remember two things: 1) The DXY is in a triangle consolidation 2) It's summer.

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And a longer term false breakdown could really break higher following a weak CAD jobs print on Friday. Shorts should be careful

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Intraday Update: Another rejection near the 1.0800 level as the bearish pennant develops. Key support is at the 1.0700 level today and ahead of CPI tomorrow.

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AUDUSD is trading at the 61.8% retracement, and we were targeting the 200dma into Asian trade. If you look left, the 200DMA has been a factor, so worth noting.

ForexAnalytixPipczar

Ab=CD and bear flag completion will be at the long term 78% retracement at .6385.