GBP is looking very overbought on the RSI and stochastic. CPI data will make or break a 50bp August rate hike by the Bank of England. Markets continue to lean on the hawkish side with their pricing: 44bp for August, 116bp in total. Still, peak rate expectations have remained volatile and were scaled back by nearly 15bp yesterday. GBP/USD Short Entry 1HR We have...
We have seen a pullback on the weekly and daily timeframes for this pair. There was a strong bullish pin bar candle on the daily time timeframe Friday bouncing off the 200 EMA(Green).We would be looking for possible entries on the 1HR or 4HR timeframes. Entries would be taken if price bounces off or away from the 20 EMA(Blue), we also have the 20 EMA and 50EMA...
The CAD was amongst the G10 FX to cope best with the USD resurgence, which is a corollary to the fact that the CAD has been the G10 FX to capitalise the least on this month’s USD underperformance. The broad risk-on tone and extended rally in oil prices could still be supportive for the CAD further down the line, while rate differentials continue to hold up largely...
Possible long entry with GBP/CHF on the 1HR Chart. If we can break above the level highlighted in blue and the 200 EMA(Green) and we would also need to see the 20 EMA(Blue) stay above the 50 EMA(Red). GBP/CHF Daily Chart On the Daily chart we can see GBP/CHF has been in a range since around November 2022 between the price levels highlighted in red and we are...
While recent EUR/USD gains have been exaggerated in our view and could be followed by a correction lower in the near term, we think that the mix of drivers behind the currency pair would remain largely positive, allowing it to regain more ground in the next 6-12M. Turning to EUR/USD, we expect that the policy convergence between the ECB and the Fed will remain the...
After the exaggerated drop in the DXY last week following a marginal miss on US CPI, the USD has regained some of its poise. The DXY has returned to 101, a level which provided solid support through most of H1 23. A rebound in US yields has likely played its part in the bounce-back, as equity markets remain elevated suggesting little or no ‘safe haven’ element to...
We will be looking for pullbacks now as the USD is looking oversold on both the Stochastic and RSI. We continue to believe that the USD is in the early stages of a structural decline, and that its move lower may not be linear. The most recent break in the USD’s recent trading range, to the downside, gives us increased confidence in this view.