Fractal777

Fractal777 Updated 

A meandering week for markets, although down, there seemed little conviction on either side., Almost a no man's land of indecision, waiting for the next meaningful data to pinpoint which direction. Our bet is a resumption of the bear market, bulls are betting on the Fed. Probability is our analysis, we get it wrong sometimes but rarely the big long term...

Fractal777

Only a few weeks ago, the banking system began to meltdown, contagion threatened as multiple banks imploded. The amazing Fed splashed their cash in excess of obligations and bailed out depositors. Make no mistake, the banking system was breaking and the Fed acted to halt systemic risks. Panic averted, calm restored and nothing to see here? Along comes the lower...

Fractal777 Updated 

The Dow meandered higher the past week, resistance at the trend line...this we expect will be broken through with a throw over move to conclude the corrective move. Around another 2% is possible to 34100 ish. Gold had another great week and importantly, closed above 2000 U.S. A flight to safety and store of value, a hedge against the coming chaos. Over $3000 in...

Fractal777 Updated 

The past weeks price action was stronger than expected, the bottom arrow pointing to candle tails which are often bullish. Short covering is fuelling the rally, we look to the top trend line for resistance now. Fourteen months of bear market action and we are still in a wave two corrective rally, seems never ending, the Fed has goosed investors with bank...

Fractal777

What will this coming week bring us?..walking on eggshells. Another 25 basis points and another nail in the market coffin, only Houdini can get out of this one. Despite a few calling for a pivot, the Fed has little interest in fuelling a rally. 31500 has found good support so far, bank contagion has been papered over for now, amnesia takes over rational thinking...

Fractal777

Our stance for a long time has been the Fed will deliberately collapse the economy and make it look like not their doing...make it look believable. Yesterday they yet again raised rates in the face of an imploding bank crisis that will for sure create further chaos...crimp demand and inflation is their agenda. They will NOT pause rates until they have systemic...

Fractal777 Updated 

Janet Yellen - The former Fed chairwoman claimed in 2017 that there would be no other financial crisis in her lifetime, here we are in 2023 in the beginnings of a likely collapse. If you believe in the Fed or banks and have faith in these festering pits of rot, brace yourself to be either wiped out or at best, on a very long waiting list of a return of your...

Fractal777

It's been sometime since we shared an idea on what we know as true money. Gold has been on a tear the last few weeks and especially so in a number of countries including my Australian dollar which hit a record high this week at $2874 and perhaps higher. The massive cup and handle pattern is indicative of what's imminent. Pressure is building on the upper handle,...

Fractal777 Updated 

Wave three down at higher degree is no doubt upon us. Our last idea called for a dream selling opportunity from Friday's close and any rally to be sold, which we got on Monday. Since, has been heavy selling on heavy volume, those on the inside were getting out last week...many more joined the selling as Powell broke any fantasy that a pivot is coming. Thursday's...

Fractal777 Updated 

Support held exactly as thought last week, any solid close below the bottom trendline, will usher in the next selling phase. The bounce or correction on Friday has hurled us towards a target of around 33700ish...any upward move between here and the target is your dream selling zone if not already short. A higher degree wave three down will break support and a...

Fractal777 Updated 

The 13th of December shooting star will go down as the clearest top signal for many years. Our stance has been solid that this was the top and since has been nothing short of meandering indecision from the bulls as to whether the inflation genie would vanish. They pretty much concluded this past week that this monster is going nowhere. Data is consistently...

Fractal777 Updated 

The Dow threatened to break down on Friday and bounce off our lower trend line to close modestly up. This pattern squeeze will resolve itself very soon, inflation data just keeps piling on the pressure for the Fed to keep hiking. They are trapped, raising rates too much will blow up the markets...but these puny rises are not enough to tame the rising costs. Supply...

Fractal777 Updated 

Another week of ups and downs, the Dow has gone nowhere since November. The pennant pattern has formed with indecision as to what way this will break. No amount of goosing or manipulation can stop the inevitable break, our bet is a breakdown of high degree in world markets. This corrective rally is stalling, serious divergences are appearing, participation is...

Fractal777

The Dow finished a volatile week of oscillating price moves almost exactly where it began. Again, the Fed made it very clear that more rate hikes are coming and Friday's payroll number was spit the dummy. Overbought markets and a strong enough job market will never make them pivot. We will witness their u turn when they have collapsed the stocks..not before. A...

Fractal777

Four months of rally and the Dow again touches 34K. The Fed chatter of 25 points rise is priced in, gold is overbought, the market is overbought. 50 point rise would slam gold and markets would selloff. The Fed will do everything possible to appease the masses, but it's a stay of execution. The bear will resume and take control. Davos and the WEF jet set club...

Fractal777

A thumping week down on the Dow as was very likely, many bulls caught on the wrong side and dumped. This twist and turn market fools the most by design...just as the all clear seemed on, slam and smash into a very likely early stage wave three down. Friday looked a positive day and into early this week the Dow should rally some more...this is one of these periods...

Fractal777

The Dow's rally looks almost done, an ascending wedge of the past weeks action and Friday was weak in breadth and volume. 34,500 looks like a reversal area, despite the counter rally the past week, we are in a bear market and until this is proved wrong, we will remain short. Our position is longer term and not trying to scalp or swing trade by a day or two....

Fractal777

Friday's action spooked the shorts and scramble they did to cover. As backward and upside down this world is, any negative news or poor economic situation is a reason to spike stocks...all about the precious rate rises, a total disconnect from reality. This rally has fulfilled enough counter to reverse from here and twist us all again. As long as the rally holds,...