FractalTrader

FractalTrader

Unlike corrections, bullish trends seldom end on a momentum high. They tend to exhaust, and leave a divergence in momentum. The pattern I see as a possibility here looks like a WXY corrective pattern. Shorter term, the c-wave is possibly ending in an expanding diagonal formation, but needs another push to highs to complete the pattern. The interpretation is...

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The bond market, and treasuries in particular have a notorious habit of leading the way for stocks.

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The rally last week was nothing short of spectacular. I'm still not ready to convert to bullish here, and there are several caution flags on the daily and weekly charts. I've illustrated at least 4 of those below. While much of the Sept chop is not clear, or leaves too many count variations, what is clear is that the market traced out 5 waves up off the...

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This count is still 3-wave corrective. It means we can easily see another violent move down near term. Could a base be forming? Possibly. But here it's good to keep an open mind and be prepared for further downside still.

FractalTrader Updated 

There are plenty of doom sayers out there, and a brief glance over my prior posts should show that I'm not a perma-bear. The late-October/early September mini-crash definitely set the stage for continued selling, but I've been waiting for a more clear pattern to indicate the next leg down is starting. The September 18 break down out of consolidation seemed like...

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First support expected to give way soon, possibly this week or early next week.

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Triple fan break confirmed above 112.11, but needs volume confirmation also.

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Breakout with volume confirmation above the 17.64 level will confirm the triple fan breakout.

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NYSE new highs ( INDEX:HIGN ) - lows ( INDEX:LOWN ) shows a recent downward trend (red linear regression trend line) and the smoothed moving averages threatening to fall and remain below 0. We'll see whether this recovers like it did the the last quarter of 2014. This is not yet enough to become bearish, but it's certainly a warning to pay attention in the weeks...

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I'm not a big fan of using static values on the VIX. A look at VIX/VXV shows that when the VIX makes a big move relative to the VXV the market is likely near a turning point. I have used a keltner channel as a filter to show only the extreme moves.

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I haven't posted an intraday chart in some time. There's lots of news lately moving markets, so I think it's time to take a look. The pseudo-triple bottom here was the first clue that a triangle could be forming. After all, there really is no such thing as a true triple bottom, it's always some sort of triangle. I started to track this formation last night...

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Come along for a ride, as we examine the current context of the stock market. Part 1 Weekly A look at the weekly shows a rising wedge formation. This formation has been identified by many market participants on this site and elsewhere, so this is nothing new. Elliott Wave Theory knows this formation as an ending diagonal, a move that brings about the...

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I recently posted about expected downside for the bond market, based on technicals. As long as we're looking at bonds, why not look at treasuries. The technicals for TLT are in a little more of a "grey area" technically, than corporate bonds. The two scenarios I can see for the wave pattern have very different outcomes. Scenario 1 points to lower prices after...

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The ETF representing the Vanguard Total Market is down around 3% off 2015 highs, and about 4.5% off the highest point in 2012. First, the minor support level at 82.02 was broken, followed by the next minor support at 81.84. A move below the major support at 81.37 will break the rising channel going back to the September 2013 low, effectively breaking the...

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Here we are, halfway through May and "sell in May and go away" is perhaps in question as markets made new closing highs last week. A look at momentum here on the monthly chart shows a situation very similar to the one I called out on the weekly chart back in Jan of this year. Much like the situation back in Jan on the weekly, I see momentum coming off an...

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If a correction is in fact underway, and I'm not saying emphatically that it is yet, I'm looking for the 1895 level as a support that would likely hold. That would constitute an 18-20% correction. I'm still leaning toward a correction due, rather than a severe crash, as the "permabears" are continually calling for. I saw a guy post on here this weekend calling...

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This post is meant to provoke thought, more than impress my view of the markets. Four different types of markets are represented here, Stocks(SPY), Real Estate (IYR), Treasury Bonds (TLT), and Precious Metals (GLD). There are nearly infinite ways of looking at the markets technically. I've decided to keep it simple with linear regression as the most basic...

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Those looking only at bar or candle charts probably won't notice this pattern. This looks like a symmetrical consolidation pattern, and time will tell if this scenario continues to play out, as I suspect it may. I noticed a similar pattern back in early Feb (linked below). I continue to think there are too many bears out there, and the risk charts I've been...