FractalTrader

FractalTrader

The overall picture remains neutral with 3 out of 6 charts bearish with the rest bullish or neutral. Since the last post, both SPY/TLT and the VIX chart changed short term trend to bearish, making both of those charts bearish on all 3 trend definitions. Risk is starting to come out of the market in some areas, but no panic yet. On the contrary, IWM/SPY ratio...

FractalTrader

As always, a work in progress. But I like looking at these charts. I've started to add notations on each chart such that my own interpretation is more clear. Again, the concept is to look for signs of rotation to safety. As such, we look at rotation out of small cap (risky) stocks into large cap stocks via IWM/SPY; rotation from growth into dividend (SPY/PFM);...

FractalTrader

With treasuries looking to break down on the daily, and SPY looking like it wants another shot at the high I have to continue to lean bullish for the next few weeks. I admit, it's hard to ignore that the overall trend on TLT remains higher, as it was throughout all of 2014, but 2015 hasn't been great for TLT so far. It seems to be saying to me that many who...

FractalTrader

Way back in January, I posted a bullish (or let's say non-bearish) forecast in "Is it a top?", which I have linked below. It's now time to revisit the same chart and see where we stand. The concept was almost entirely based on weekly momentum which had made a new high. I forecasted that momentum needed to retreat to lows or near lows in order to setup for a...

FractalTrader

I like when fibs line up with major price pivots. The momentum divergence signals a turn soon if not now. I'm more inclined to wait for a long entry than to short from here, but a retrace is what I'm expecting for the next few days.

FractalTrader

I post these occasionally. It keeps me honest, and I hope it does the same for you. Once again, looking at renko charts and price channels tend to simplify price action, which can often send confusing or mixed signals. They are not to trade from, but rather to form an overall bias or context. Still no long term signs of rotation to safety in the overall...

FractalTrader

I count a completed 5 waves up last week on the hourly chart. Notice the divergence in momentum between waves 3 and 5. The reversal on Friday provided 3 waves down with lots of overlap, so I'm labeling that an ABC corrective pattern, but the retrace was very shallow. A shallow retrace can happen in a super strong trend, but given recent volatility, I count...

FractalTrader

Over two weeks ago, I posted "Is it a top? I doubt it" with the notion that the market might still make another high. To me the chart still indicates higher. I've spent some time tonight looking through other people's technical analysis posted here, and I would say I'm definitely in the minority. The pattern in progress so far in 2015 is looking like a...

FractalTrader

I haven't posted this is a few months. There are plenty of people out there calling for a bear market now, and while that's certainly possible, I'm still not seeing the signs just yet.

FractalTrader

My analysis is pretty much 3 fold here. 1. The weekly chart on the left is showing momentum confirming the high, which indicates a bias toward another high. I like to see momentum divergence at tops. The October low is a significant level to watch if broken, however. 2. The daily chart on the right at the moment appears like 2 ABC patterns, so a corrective...

FractalTrader

Time once again to post the risk grid. IWM/SPY ratio has taken out a support level going back to 2011, and is most certainly a bearish signal. Most of the other indicators have not yet confirmed, but the # of stocks above their 100-day is in neutral territory. While not yet bearish, this is certainly sends a flag that the market could be getting ready for a...

FractalTrader

Finally starting to see some topping signs. Major levels are still in tact though, so getting short here is probably premature, as markets can still easily test highs or even make new highs while these indicators continue to break down.

FractalTrader

Still no major reversals yet, though SPY/TLT and IWM/SPY has resumed short term downtrends

FractalTrader

I like the .382 fib retracement target in this case, based on the lower timeframe. The 15min chart has an ABC retracement in place, with an extension to the same area. (IWM 15min chart) Both point to 166 area, then we should see another leg down covering at minimum the distance of this last move, but likely 161.8% or more.

FractalTrader

It's easy to be bearish IWM given the underperformance relative to SPY (and nearly everyone is), but a look at the short term trend shows a break above the falling price channel, and prior channel resistance is now acting as support. Two attempts at the 115.72 level, where a change of price trend is confirmed, have failed. There is no such thing as a triple top,...

FractalTrader

my little market health grid had several signals flip out of bearish state, the only signal remaining bearish is the short term trend in IWM/SPY ratio. as much as this market might be in the nosebleed section, I have to conclude the bias is up intermediate term.

FractalTrader

Overall, no clear sign of a bear market turning point yet. There are a few concerns short term: - signs of a move into treasuries - a rotation out of small cap stocks into large caps.

FractalTrader

This chart is wrong, please see instead