FractalTrader

FractalTrader

If we break below the cloud, and the price support area of 19.29 in the coming week, I'll be looking at puts targeting new lows on the 4H and daily time frames. Please see my prior post of 4H time frame for short setup details.

FractalTrader

Critical prior momentum high was exceeded, setting the stage for a fall. A break to new highs will invalidate this setup, particularly if it's accompanied by volume. I will consider this setup confirmed if support is broken on the 15 and 1hr time frames, particularly with momentum confirmation.

FractalTrader

SLV is running into cloud resistance on the daily chart, and likely completing a wave 4. One more wave down is needed if this is an ABC correction, otherwise it's a 3 in which case a larger correction is underway. Either way, lower prices should be coming in this metal.

FractalTrader

One of the tenets of EWT (Elliott Wave Theory) is that 5-wave moves define the trend, while 3-wave moves define the counter trend. While the higher degree trend has not yet officially turned (because we don't yet have 5 waves down on hourly or higher time frames), what I am seeing is a consistent trend of 5 waves on the downside, and 3 wave retracements. Today's...

FractalTrader

I count 5 waves up in UNG, which implies at least the one higher degree trend is up. One more dip will complete the ABC retracement of the last move up. Any move below 20.84 should be sufficient to complete the pattern, however there are a few likely fibo targets shown, my preferred being 20.70 due to a fibo cluster in that area. Should price bounce from this...

FractalTrader

Is it a correction, or a trend change? To a waver, it comes down to counting it as a corrective ABC or 3-wave complex correction, or a 5 wave move defining a higher degree move. In other words, 5 waves down on the hourly, can be a 1 or A down on the daily. We are at the place here and now, where it could be a completed ABC, or a completed 123 on the hourly...

FractalTrader

I thought it'd be fun given the new year to throw up a longer term chart, even though I'm generally playing weekly options so hourly is typically as long term as I go. What I've shown here is a weekly chart going back to the last decent correction in 2012. I won't point out the obvious rally, but what I will say is that the waves do contain a lot of overlap,...

FractalTrader

You can see here the cloud tested twice, and then the market gave up and headed down. I was actually fooled this morning by the intraday rally, but as we sold off into the close I put on some bear put vertical spreads. There's an old saying about not being able to see the forest for the trees. It's easy to get caught up in the intraday price action. Sometimes...

FractalTrader

Let me start by saying that shorter term, I expect a little higher during the next trading session, as patterns are not yet complete on the smaller timeframes. I think the odds of new highs on this timeframe are remote for the next week or two. For those with a short attention span, I'll cut to the chase and say that I'm expecting the market to trade down to...

FractalTrader

It's possible to count 5 waves down and a 3 wave retrace (the 8 wave pattern for entry) on the 5min chart. The problem is it's well short of the normal 618 retrace for a wave 2 (or B). The market can head down now, or this can simply be a complex retracement, in which case we'll see another abc. Going short right here will have the most risk, with the stop at...

FractalTrader

Earlier this week I had looked for completion of the 5-wave upside pattern on the 23rd, with a short entry on a move below the 26 period ichi MA. As it turns out the final wave extended, but no harm done as the short entry was never triggered. For the final wave pattern to complete, we still need the final 5th subwave to make a new high (marked as "v"). Once...