After the NZD rate cut last night and the growth in inflation that we have been seeing in Australia I expect the AUD/NZD to continue on a long position path. On the monthly chart there is also a huge head and shoulders pattern developed which depicts a 2000 pip target from 11150. Looking for the pull back to the pivot point for an entry today. learn to trade like...
Fundamentals:- The Euro is still one of the weakest currencies out there at the moment and with further stimulus likely in March from the ECB we should see further downside. The AUD has been showing some strength in the economy but still has some mixed data. It is the technical picture that makes this trade more attractive at the moment. Technicals:- As you can...
Fundamentals:- Fundamentals:- There is still the divergence between the two central banks where the BoJ are willing to do anything to get inflation back up to 2% and the US FED are in a rate rising cycle. The JPY is being used as a safe haven currency and can strengthen at any risk off point in the market. We still expect a correction in the USD/JPY throughout the...
The Aussie has become somewhat neutral currency due to the halting of monetary easing giving the opportunity for the AUD to rally from lows against weaker currencies. On the JPY side of the trade the BoJ are actively intervening in the FX space to keep their currency weak. The dangers of this trade are the safe haven flows strengthening the JPY momentariy. However...
Looking to buy the GBP/JPY this morning as the CPI y/y figure is expected to show an increase in inflation which could bring forward the expectation of an interest rate hike from the BoE. On the other side of the trade the JPY is particularly weak at the moment with a poor Prelim GDP reading on Sunday evening and expected intervention from the BoJ in the FX market...
Fundamentally the euro is one of the weakest currencies out there and the recent rally is another excuse to go short. The GBP has got some potential as the next rate decision is likely to be an increase according to the BoE. tECHNICALLY WE CAN SEE THE PINBAR REJECTION OF THE 7800 LEVEL WHICH WAS OUR BUYING TARGET FROM A FEW WEEKS BACK AND A POTENTIAL REVERSAL...
Fundamentals: - Mixed data from Canada last week with a tick up in unemployment and worse than expected employment change. However the rally in Oil did help the Canadian strengthen for a period of time last week. I don’t think the Canadian can maintain a positive rally, once the data starts to be absorbed by the market we should see this pair return to the upside...
We are looking to the NFP to adjust the current weakness in the USD and bring this original trading plan back to complete its second leg. Check out the linked chart from the 25th January. I have set a new low of the day so that we can have a degree of safety if the NFP disappoints. Learn 2 trade like a pro. bankonadam.com
We have had a considerable sell off in the USDJPY over the past few days as expected. The area of consolidation is consistent with our long term analysis as per the linked charts and we expect a tradable pull back before the break through of the consolidation pattern. We may stay consolidated for longer than these arrows suggest they are just to point out the...
With what looks to be a very dovish thursday looming tomorrow for the U.K. and analysts now suggesting a push back in rate hikes to 2018 and even the potential of a rate cut we are looking for further weakness in the GBP. The Oil price has had the biggest decline in 2 days in 7 years but seems to be finding a bottom around the 27 - 29 $bb mark which indicates we...
After mixed data from China this morning and Oil looking like a further drop is on the cards I would expect the Aussie the pare all its gains from last week which was mainly due to the recovery in Oil. We do have the RBA rate statment out tomorrow morning so I will be looking to lock in any profit with a break even stop loss before the rate staement is released....
We are looking to short the USDJPY trading out of the monetary policy report tomorrow morning. The market is starting to believe that the BoJ will add further stimulus but I don't think that is the case o at this meeting. Safe haven flows are still a big factor in the direction of this currency pair with the JPY being a sort after currency in times of risk off...
Putting my head on a block with this one as there are a few variables to consider in the time that I expect this move to happen but as it stands at the moment the fundamentals are starting to point to the USD long positions starting to fizzle out by Mid 2016 I fully expect the USD to be a neutral currency. The GBP did have dovish comments from Mark Carney...
The success of this trade is really going to depend on the outcome of the ECB press conference later today. If the ECB is dovish then the Euro will fall to previous lows of this year. However if they come out with hawkish tones in their language then we could rally back to 11050 and 13000. The fundamental direction for the Euro is bearish so I expect it to return...
With NZD still struggling to make any consistent good data and CPI expected to fall again this week we expect to see a huge relief rally on this downside against the GBP. This is a longer term trade and will probably last for a few weeks so trading it at smaller lot sizes to accommodate the large stop loss is wise...also take into consideration the difference in...
After the better than expected Aussie employment report and the Oil price once again rejecting 30$b/b I would expect to see some minor strength in the Aussie today. The combination of the MPC official bank rate votes and other Important data due out in the UK today which I expect to be on the dovish side we should see this pair post further downside. On the...
We have been waiting for an opportunity to get into the USDJPY for a short for a while. We had hoped the USD rate hike would have given the opportunity for a price around 125.00 but that didn't materialize. By all intensive purposes the USD bull run is over and the rate hikes of 2016 are priced in the slow down in China is causing investors to look for safe haven...
As long as the EURO remains elevated and pressure is on the GBP I see no reason why the technical breakout of 7500 resistance won't continue up to the next area of confluence I will be placing stops below the last swing low. learn to trade like a pro bankonadam.com