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Short on Private Equity - BX
BX
, 1D
Short
BX: Short on Private Equity - BX
Updated 

A lot of people are thinking that this bear market is already in it's later innings. If anything, it's probably the opposite given that inflation has not yet broken, employment may only be starting to see it's cyclical decline, etc. Private equity has been heavily levered during this cycle, and in general has dumped gobs of $ into shit investments (see the...

Short on KKR + Private Equity
KKR
, 1W
Short
KKR: Short on KKR + Private Equity

See notes on BX short - using this chart as general support across sector.

Private Equity Short - $PSP
PSP
, 1W
Short
PSP: Private Equity Short - $PSP

See short note on $BX at

Simple short - VFC Corp - Long term head and shoulders
VFC
, 1W
Short
VFC: Simple short - VFC Corp - Long term head and shoulders

VFC is a corp that not only is showing a wonderful long-term topping pattern. It's also positioned in a rather poor manner for the current macro environment. They are a cyclical company that sources the majority of their products from Asia, experiencing significant supply issues that are constricting margins significantly. Not sure if this breaks immediately,...

Healthcare is still in a bull market - be long
XLV
, 1D
Long
XLV: Healthcare is still in a bull market - be long

At the start of 2022, healthcare stocks have gotten killed, especially anything that was a winner in the past 1-2 years. A lot of people are getting rather bearish, but they shouldn't be. The fundamentals favor healthcare still in many ways, and momentum is still rather strong. We already got the breakout in healthcare stocks, and we just got the retest, which was...

Bitcoin, Treasuries, USD Retesting, All Telling Same Story
US30Y
, 1D
US30Y: Bitcoin, Treasuries, USD Retesting, All Telling Same Story

Whatever your opinion of these assets, they're all behaving in a fairly similar fashion, and they all have been behaving somewhat similarly over the last 3 years. No surprise, bitcoin and foreign currencies ten to outperform when financial conditions are loose and loosening. The vice versa is likely true as financial conditions tighten. Interestingly, if you...

Last Major Support for Amazon
AMZN
, 1W
AMZN: Last Major Support for Amazon
Updated 

I posted a few months ago Amazon was in a terminal formation. Like a lot of stuff, there was an upside overthrow to knock out any remaining bears, and now we are looking to test the long term support from the 2008 lows. Below that, there are a few other support lines, but the next MAJOR support is around 950-1000 depending on time frame of a drop. Amazon actually...

AAPL Relative to the S&P 500 is Showing Extreme Froth
AAPL
, 1W
AAPL: AAPL Relative to the S&P 500 is Showing Extreme Froth

No clue what a fundamental shift would be that would cause a reversal here, but this has never been so extended. Ever. AAPL relative to SPX is trading above 3.5 standard deviations on a weekly timeframe. I looked back through the history and it has never been so extended relative to the rest of the market, even during the height of it's bull runs. To me, this...

The Ending of an Era - HSI
HSI
, 1W
Short
HSI: The Ending of an Era - HSI

Original Chart This is Based Off 2018 update Original Trade Strategy Around This Chart Everything should be self explanatory in the chart. Of course - this will work until it doesn't, but since the 1990, the HSI index hitting its upper resistance line has nailed every major global market top within a very short timeframe. You can see how perfect...

JPYUSD Hits Critical Trendline That Signals Downturn
JPYUSD
, 1D
Short
JPYUSD: JPYUSD Hits Critical Trendline That Signals Downturn

Interesting relationship here - JPYUSD has a 6 year bottom trendline of resistance it has been following. This line has been hit a few times over the last 6 years, and literally every time it hits this line, a correction of some variety occurs. It's almost like clockwork. Not sure if there is actually any mechanistic behavior going on, but it's worth noting...

Put Volume - Total Collapse
PVSPX
, 1W
PVSPX: Put Volume - Total Collapse

Total collapse in downside hedging since April 2020. This is not put to call ratio, just SPX index puts, nothing more. Chart is 15 week exponential moving average to smooth data.

RUT/SPX ratio is just a play on commodity prices
RUT
, 1W
RUT: RUT/SPX ratio is just a play on commodity prices

In short, Russel has more exposure to material prices, and this is reflected in the ratio of the russel to the S&P, which looks extremely similar to the combined price of oil, copper, and soybeans (just as an example of a simple commodity basket).

TSLA - Bubble Pattern Analysis
TSLA
, 1D
TSLA: TSLA - Bubble Pattern Analysis

Note: This is just information to compare **potential** bubble formation of TSLA vs. the chart patterns of other historic Bubbles. Of note, a classic bubble pattern follows as this: Phase 1: Trending breakout of basing formation in a strong up-trending move Phase 2: Trending high-volatility drawdown (usually not related to stock or index itself). Phase...

3d Systems Bubble Pattern Analysis
DDD
, 1D
DDD: 3d Systems Bubble Pattern Analysis

Bubble Pattern Analysis - follows same pattern as many Phase 1: Trending breakout of basing formation in a strong up-trending move Phase 2: Trending high-volatility drawdown (usually not related to stock or index itself). Phase 3: Trending recovery - stock or index shrugs off the high volatility event as it recovers quickly and stronger than before. ...

CSCO Bubble Pattern
CSCO
, 1W
CSCO: CSCO Bubble Pattern

Followed a common 5 phase pattern Phase 1: Trending breakout of basing formation in a strong up-trending move Phase 2: Trending high-volatility drawdown (usually not related to stock or index itself). Phase 3: Trending recovery - stock or index shrugs off the high volatility event as it recovers quickly and stronger than before. Phase 4: Upwards & &...

Great Depression Bubble Pattern Analysis
DJI
, 1W
DJI: Great Depression Bubble Pattern Analysis

Charting the Pattern of the Pre Depression Bubble Phase 1: Trending breakout of basing formation in a strong up-trending move Phase 2: Trending high-volatility drawdown (usually not related to stock or index itself). Phase 3: Trending recovery - stock or index shrugs off the high volatility event as it recovers quickly and stronger than before. Phase...

Ni225 Bubble Pattern Analysis
NI225
, 1W
NI225: Ni225 Bubble Pattern Analysis

5 step pattern describing the bubble formation of the Nikkei index in the 1990's. Phase 1: Trending breakout of basing formation in a strong up-trending move Phase 2: Trending high-volatility drawdown (usually not related to stock or index itself). Phase 3: Trending recovery - stock or index shrugs off the high volatility event as it recovers quickly...

Breakdown of Semiconductors
SMH
, 15
Short
SMH: Breakdown of Semiconductors

Simple view of this critical sector breaking through key technical trendlines. Our first bearish sign was the break earlier in August, which held, and rallied back above the original broken trendline. That quickly stopped as momentum ran out, and it's now breaking through multiple trendlines with bulls at max long. This can potentially fall significantly given...

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