GTStockmaster

GTStockmaster

Just looking at two potential necklines. Both probably matter. If you take away the overthrow in 2008, you get a very clean horizontal neckline that just broke, signaling recent acceleration downward in AUD. This is also likely why we were muddling around recently in the current range for such a long time. The other neckline was already broken, but it based on...

GTStockmaster

Not that this is necessarily meaningful, but I find the characteristics of these assets rather strikingly similar. While I certainly would not trade off this alone, it kind of cements my view that Gold is potentially due to for a huge selloff here, which is a very contrarian take in today's market environment. The charts read extremely similarly... peak...

GTStockmaster

See chart

GTStockmaster

2018 saw a rolling bear market in emerging markets, with a lot of EM currencies getting crushed vs. the dollar. Why has everyone forgotten about this? The issues are systemic, and the buy-down of the USDHKD peg only kept the eurodollar market functioning for long enough to forestall some further pain. Now that the peg has been hit again, we are starting to yet...

GTStockmaster

Unsurprisingly, similar to the currency, the outperformance of the Chinese stock market vs. the S&P 500 falters when the Chinese currency can't be sustained. Not quite as direct of a relationship, but this clearly affects emerging markets, which are highly indebted to the dollar. This is visible if you go back further as well - the broad rolling emerging market...

GTStockmaster

Unsurprisingly, right as the USDHKD Peg hit it's 7.85 limit, China lost its ability to prop up the Yuan, and the Yuan started to fall once again. This is further confirmation that the Yuan is subject to dollar pressure, and Hong Kong is China's "release valve" for dollar funding pressures. When the peg gets hit, the CCP has a difficult time keeping the RMB afloat.

GTStockmaster

Cross = very negative, and typically occurs during a fed rate cutting cycle. These often top-tick markets, and this has been a very reliable indicator across all the bull and bear markets for quite some time. Note - I use ICSA because despite it being noisy, it's actually a cleaner data series when you just smooth it with a moving average (I use EMA). It's not...

GTStockmaster

Getting close to inversion. If the 10y keeps the breakout momentum up, we will invert soon.

GTStockmaster

Today's read (not accounted for in this chart) is starting to make this a bit worrying. ICSA rising again week over week, threatening to break momentum. ICSA is a noisy indicator, but if you simply add smoothing with a moving average calculation, it becomes a better version of the unemployment rate. I say it's better because it's not subject to data issues such as...

GTStockmaster

USDHKD is a proxy for monetary "stuff" going on in China. China can stimulate when this peg is not being hit as most of their dollar funding seems to be running through Hong Kong. When the peg gets hit however, we see noticeable problems and effects around the world. We are now about to see the peg get re-hit once again, which will likely kick off another wave of...

GTStockmaster Updated 

REIT's are looking like the first sector to definitively break the big uptrend since December 24th. Big move here breaking out of 2 month wedge to the downside. All momentum indicators are also pointing downward (macd, stochastic) and we've had demark exhaustion signals as well. Easy short entry here.

GTStockmaster

Addendum Chart with more long-term picture + momentum indicators added on.

GTStockmaster

No MA cross included here, just an update on current Initial claims direction. We're still ticking upward more, haven't yet received confirmation, but starting to look like we'll get some momentum in the unemployment rate. Once that gets going, it's game over for the economy. We're getting more and more updates of corporate layoffs recently, but wait on data to...

GTStockmaster

Markets looking ripe for a reversal right now, and the safe-haven commodity is about to get dumped hard here. Gold retraced perfectly back to the long-term neckline of the head and shoulders it broke over the summer, and is about to plummet from here, confirming more deflationary action in the markets. Perfect retest after a break, and I don't see the fundamental...

GTStockmaster

They're basically the same thing.

GTStockmaster

Watch the cross here. Note the extremely close match to the overall stock market, and how this LEADS recessions. This data has a few small false signals going back to the 60's, but it has properly led every recession regardless of that fact. If you combine this signal with something simple like yield curve inversion, you would get one of the easiest and best...

GTStockmaster

Over 25% max drawdown, with more possible.

GTStockmaster

Just a peek at the advance /decline ratio on tradingview. Not the best breadth indicator, but worthwhile nonetheless.