Gab

Gab

It looks like the correction is probably over for the ABC correction of wave(2) pullback. Let's see how DXY will react now ...

Gab

It looks like the ABC correction completed and pullback on Intermediate wave(2) for a run into Intermediate wave(3). As you probably know, AUDUSD is highly correlated with Gold ...

Gab

How many of you spotted the 'Three White Soldiers ? This usually implies the down-trend will continue... Why ? From Bulkowski's Encyclopedia Of Candlestick Charts: thepatternsite.com " Look for three white soldiers that appear an an upward retrace in a downward price trend. Expect the downtrend to continue" p.799 Nice GraveStone Doji candle on the weekly...

Gab

Looking at the last COT report for gold, it's always important to look at the Net Position of the Commercials (Bullion Banks). Using the Net Position of the commercials we can use one common indicator that I want to show you how to construct is called the COT index. The calculation is below COT index = 100 x (current Net – Minimum Net) / (maximum Net – Minimum...

Gab

On the other side IF Bullion Banks don't smash the price of gold from the 200 dma like they did three times in 2017 (see idea published before), we can have ended this Bull Flag and start the next leg up ... Time will tell.

Gab

The 200 Daily Moving average is at 1305 (05-02-18). Looking at the year 2017, we saw three occurrences when the Bullion Banks smashed the price of gold below the 200 dma . Each time, price fell $30 - $40 below the 200 dma before reversing. We've Seen This Movie Before... Will it happen again ???

Gab

Gold is loosely pegged at 8500 CNY imho. In order for Gold to fall against the USD, either China devalues CNY vs Gold or USDCNY would have to soar. Neither the US nor China wants either for different reasons. So why is Gold rising today? XAUCNY is reverting to its 8500 peg yet again. USDCNY will have to break higher for Gold to break below...

Gab

King Dollar 4 Months Bear Flag right at resistance and 10Y-2Y yield spread < 50 bps. The flattening of the Yield Curve IS NOT GOOD FOR THE DOLLAR. Watch 10Y-02Y spread and then go look at a chart from 2004 to 2008 www.tradingview.com

Gab

GDX continues to outperform GLD . This isn't what happens before a big $gold selloff. Most likely, this is an advance-warning of gold's impending breakout.

Gab

US Treasuries are selling and US yields are rising ... Do you know know what Central Banks have bought a lot of in the past 5 yrs ? Gold Here’s a chart showing Central Banks gold purchases v. Central Banks UST purchases Jan-13 thru Dec-17: postimg.cc So not surprising to see this pattern of a Cup and Handle with a clear breakout for the GLD/TLT ratio ... Long Gold

Gab

The 10 Year Yield is now above 2.9% ... Bonds are selling ... The Fed is walking a fine line. The National debt is too high and interest costs will cripple the country at normal rates like 5%. But China and Russia and even Japan are not buying treasuries and won’t unless and until interest rates are overwhelmingly attractive. We are in end stages of a crack-up...

Gab

The 10 Year Yield is now above 2.9% ... From an EW perspective, it looks like Minuette wave (iv) is over. The Fed is walking a fine line. The National debt is too high and interest costs will cripple the country at normal rates like 5%. But China and Russia and even Japan are not buying treasuries and won’t unless and until interest rates are overwhelmingly...

Gab

I do love this chart ... :).

Gab

Real Rates and Gold Another way to look at Real Rates is by looking at the difference between TIP (Treasury Inflation-Protected securities) and SHY (1-3 years Bond Yield). When the diff. is positive you have Inflation and as you probably know, gold likes inflation. Looking at TIP-SHY compare to Gold, each time we have divergence, gold wins … :).

Gab

Silver gotta break one way or the other at some point. Positioning in particular favors the upside with Funds near record short and the Big Banks at their longest in years. All depends on Gold too. Just need more time ... Long gold and Silver

Gab

Aa falling yield curve, based on the 2Y-10Y spread, is not good for the dollar (DXY). Well it hit a new recent low of 45bp yesterday and today ... Good for gold.

Gab

The neckline is very hot and the bulls touched it many times in the last five years. The bears have been defending that neckline and are probably exhausted with none left to put up a fight. IF gold is finally ready to breakout it will be interesting to see how it does it. The line in the sand comes in at 1365. It will be interesting to watch the blue rectangle...

Gab

Higher lows now clearly in place in Gold . If gold breaks above 1375, cya to the upside!!!!!!