Gains4151

Gains4151

Looks like a W3 down to bounce on the .618 or .76 @ 13500 ish. Maybe not today, but that's what it looks like at this time. This has been a difficult range to trade but stay delta neutral and look for a more solid direction

Gains4151

This is the most likely path if the countertrend rally stops at the .382. Probably will play out overnight but watch for shennanigans like stop hunts into EOD cash close. This is probably the last leg of selling before a larger rally. at the completion of C we will likely see a Wave 3 explosion. IMO if you can get a long in at 13320 you should be rich by April.

Gains4151

Hey guys and gals, I believe the selling is almost done. NQ is a little farther along than the other indexes and almost at its .76 from the peak of the last rally which is a great spot to long. Set a stop or hedge back month futures below 13k if you can survive any further selling beyond expectations. Overall, we bounce.

Gains4151 Updated 

My thoughts on a brief rally unless derailed by global news events like Ukraine. The pattern is looking like a medium term bearish pennant and will likely continue down to around 13k. I think we might test the top trendline before heading back down once more.

Gains4151 Updated 

Update - Short then long for NY open depending on what happens overnight. Signs point to a rally off this wave 4 low. Either W4 extends down overnight to the 1.236 or bounces here to retest the top or complete a wave 5.

Gains4151 Updated 

Nice short squeeze. However, it's looking a bit toppy after this mornings run. We likely consolidate here and potentially retest the highs or even exceed. 14760 or 14870 is the wave 4 .5 retrace. wave 4's almost never retrace more than .5. stay delta neutral in case we rip higher again but likely this is a large irregular and also a bull trap.

Gains4151

High probability of a reversal here with this ascending wedge. Keep an eye out for the pump/overthrow wedge pattern stop hunt before an actual reversal. We could also putter around these levels overnight and into tomorrow (2/10) before the CPI print.

Gains4151

Looking like a diamond top flat corrective that should resolve to the downside. Then, we bounce or go lower to complete a W5.

Gains4151

Looking like an irregular corrective wave 4. Expect a pump no matter what the fed says then some selling. Good levels to short would be 14,585-14,600.

Gains4151 Updated 

Corrective pattern might be bottoming, and it's time to go shopping for the retrace to at least .5 (4377). Potentially, it could dip more to 4230 but the higher probability case is to the upside over the next few days. After that, most likely some selling to push lower and set up the next Q4 rally.

Gains4151

Looks like a larger zig-zag corrective pattern but with an irregular bounce playing out for 10/7. More downside to come.

Gains4151 Updated 

Targeting a .618 retrace from today's move (15055), possibly higher. Then, the C leg lower to 14822 which is also the .5 retrace from the wave 4 low on July 19th. Despite the last 4 tops not playing out in a clear ABC corrective, there's a first time for everything! Tops are a process.

Gains4151

Looks like a bull channel forming, and confirmed by an irregular ABC corrective count. We could be setting up for a wave 3 rip up. However, gains in NAS might be muted because 10yr yields will rise along with it. Hedge with RTY.

Gains4151

Nasdaq correlations to the movement in the 10YR yield are tight. Scenario 1: 10 yr is looking to break out of a triangle to 1.35%, Nas should dip as a result Aug 2-4 ish if 10yr prediction materializes. After, 2 possible scenarios: 1.) Monster bounce to double top short term 2.) Continuation to new ATH's for wave 5 completion at the top of the channel. Stay...

Gains4151 Updated 

Even though S&P had high volume on the buys last week, it seems to be only surface level deep. We are seeing bearish divergences in MACD and higher volume on sell days indicating continuous distribution. In addition, some signs of bullish exhaustion. With 10 yr rates elevated QQQ will continue to be rangebound and add more gravity to SPY price action. There are a...

Gains4151

Here is what I am thinking. Looks like a double top to me with room to fall if we close below the 52DMA.

Gains4151

Does this remind anyone of June 10th? It could happen again. Probably not as violent but keep your mouse cursor on on sell if you are long.

Gains4151

Get out while you can and take some profits. This week was the last chance to make the case for a bullish breakout. Uneasy news of new coronavirus cases, riots, and slower than communicated recovery. At minimum a correction to 3000, then it might pop again but faily to break the trendline. Once that happens, it's a deterioration of market conditions and confidence...