For AUD/CAD at 0.8811 here, I’d estimate roughly:
Rally above 0.9130 first ~35%
Drop below 0.8492 first ~65%
Why the skew toward the downside?
Recent rejection at 0.9130 – price failed there in late Feb/Mar and again in June, showing that ceiling still holds.
Lower‐high bias – since topping at 0.9130, each bounce has come in lower (now around 0.887 → 0.899 →...
For USD/JPY at 144.11, weighing the daily range (139.58–148.65) and recent price action, I’d estimate roughly:
Slide below 139.58 first ~60%
Rally above 148.65 first ~40%
Reasoning
Range position: We’re in the upper half of a well-defined 139.58–148.65 band—mean regression favors a move back toward the lower boundary.
Failed rallies: Price has tried three...
For NZD/USD at 0.6017 here, I’d put the odds roughly at:
Rally above 0.6379 first ~60%
Drop below 0.5656 first ~40%
Why the slight tilt to the upside?
Higher‐low pattern: Since last autumn’s peak near 0.638, the lows have stepped up (≈0.550 → 0.565 → 0.582 → now 0.601), showing buyers pulling in earlier on each pullback.
Mid‐range flip: The 0.5656 zone held as...
On the NQ around 21,638, I’d estimate roughly:
Rally up through 22,248 first ~60%
Slide down through 21,024 first ~40%
Why?
Up-trend bias: Since the April low (≈16,000), the market has been in a strong rally, clearing multiple interim highs.
Resistance vs. support: 22,248 has capped rallies twice (Jan & Feb), so a break would be bullish but not guaranteed....
For AUD/USD here (0.6487) I’d peg the odds roughly at:
Rally above 0.6943 first ~60%
Drop below 0.6031 first ~40%
Why a tilt to the upside?
Higher-low structure: Since last year’s low near 0.594, price has formed progressively higher retracements (0.620 → 0.635 → 0.648).
Momentum: Daily candles have been predominantly bullish with shallow pullbacks, and...
On AUD/JPY from here (93.50), the odds favor a slide back toward 86.05 over a rally to 100.94:
Down‐trend bias
After topping near 108 last summer, price has carved a lower high (~96) and is struggling under 94–95.
Range dynamics
You’re in the bottom half of the 86.05–100.94 band; mean‐reversions tend to gravitate back toward the “midpoint” or beyond, and this...
Higher‐lows structure
Since March, EUR/JPY has carved a series of higher lows (~156 → 160 → 162 → 164), signaling buyers stepping in sooner each pullback.
Recent breakout
The pair just cleared the prior swing high around 166.0 with follow-through buying—classic mid-range bullish bias.
Momentum & RSI
Daily RSI is trending upward without overbought exhaustion yet,...
Here’s how I see GBP/JPY in this well-defined range:
Key levels
Resistance: 199.81 (multiple rejections since late 2023)
Support: 191.43 (holds going back to mid-2024)
Range dynamics
Price has spent the last 18 months oscillating between these two lines—no sustained trend outside the band.
We’re currently stuck just below the midpoint (~195.6) with failure...
For this long off 1.1193 targeting 1.1909 vs. a retrace back under 1.1193, I’d peg the probabilities roughly as:
Outcome Probability
Rally above 1.1909 first ~75%
Drop below 1.1193 first ~25%
Rationale
Bullish breakout: EUR/USD has convincingly flipped 1.115–1.120 into support and cleared the 1.15–1.16 ceiling with follow‐through.
Momentum: Daily candles show...
Given the daily down-trend and your clear break below the 1.3729 pivot, the path of least resistance is down toward 1.3420 rather than back up to 1.3729:
Trend
USD/CAD has been in a multi-month down-trend from the 1.4800 highs, carving lower highs and lower lows.
Broken support → resistance
That 1.3729 level failed as support in late May and should now act as...
Higher timeframe trend = down
Retail traders = long
JPY = Strong, AUD = Weak
Therefore bias = down
NOTE : Not in yet - Entry order set below the structure that is forming currently.
A decent level of structure was broken to the left (marked with red horizontal ray) so I believe more downside is incoming (potentially all the way to the white horizontal ray which...
Higher timeframe trend = down
Retail traders = long
Therefore bias = down
NOTE : Not in yet - Entry order set below the structure that is forming currently. We are at a resistance turned support zone (marked with white rectangle) and have seen a reaction which may entice buyers to get involved - at which point we can get involved if their stops get taken...
Higher Timeframe trend = Sell
Retail trader bias = Buy
Institutional bias = Sell
Short term target = retail trader stoploss zone
I would like to clarify that I dont trade with extended targets like the secondary and tertiary ones marked. This might be handy for people who leave runners on their trades.
Also keep in mind that I am only providing my own...
Higher Timeframe trend = Buy
Retail trader bias = Sell
Institutional bias = Buy
Short term target = retail trader stoploss zone
I would like to clarify that I dont trade with extended targets like the secondary and tertiary ones marked. This might be handy for people who leave runners on their trades.
Also keep in mind that I am only providing my own SUBJECTIVE...
Higher Timeframe trend = Sell
Retail trader bias = Buy
Institutional bias = Sell
Short term target = retail trader stoploss zone
I would like to clarify that I dont trade with extended targets like the secondary and tertiary ones marked. This might be handy for people who leave runners on their trades.
Also keep in mind that I am only providing my own...
Higher Timeframe trend = Buy
Retail trader bias = Sell
Institutional bias = Buy
Short term target = retail trader stoploss zone
I would like to clarify that I dont trade with extended targets like the secondary and tertiary ones marked. This might be handy for people who leave runners on their trades.
Also keep in mind that I am only providing my own SUBJECTIVE...
Trend is down on higher timeframes and also down atm on medium term ones.
The majority of retail traders are also long this market, adding a confluence to a downside trade.
There is a pullback here following a break of some structure that signals continuation on overall trend.
The primary target would make a decent short term target as there will be plenty of...
Trend is up on higher time frames and this seems to be at a decision point. I will apply the higher timeframe bias onto the medium and short term ones = bullish. Paired with higher highs and higher lows on the 4H, I would say its relatively safe to look for areas of value to get involved.
The primary target would make a decent short term target as there will be...
