GarryBartsch

GarryBartsch

Relief over the budget helped stocks burst through the upper resistance trend line of a long standing channel. This is no time to enter longs and short term profit taking is likely warranted for some. I was preparing for a period of hesitation starting yesterday but that didn't happen. The stock market is now technically overbought, and after the longest winning...

GarryBartsch Updated 

Open shorts now and cover just above 3.5. No support till 2.90.

GarryBartsch Updated 

Oscillators rounding over combined with the candles mean time for a trend change after a significant bull move.

GarryBartsch

Daily gold working in a descending triangle. Volume is roughly declining. Price is almost sitting on support so we could easily see a small bounce but once done I am waiting to see if it breaks hard through the horizontal support. Potential short.

GarryBartsch

The S&P 500 cannot close above 2105. What can push the market through to new highs and into a decent trend? The Fed is out of ammo and will eventually have to raise or risk never-ending abnormal borrowing costs. Normally a series of hikes are needed to derail a bull market but this market is unusually sensitive and hints of tightening send it into disarray.

GarryBartsch

The long lower shadows of the last four weeks clearly show a market trying to find a bottom. Thus I see no reason to short it anymore for a while. After some more struggle I expect to see prices try to recover. Then I will re-assess because considerable shorting opportunities could easily arise. Long term I expect to see prices go lower.

GarryBartsch

Do not open new shorts at $31. Oil is in a reliable down channel and at $31 is sitting on support. Last best short was at resistance at $38. Now the likelihood is for a counter move unless all hell breaks loose for some geopolitical reason and it plunges. Does oil make the same up/down pattern as it has seven times so far since $50? I don't know, but such movement...

GarryBartsch

The stock market has topped. Volume has been highest on down bars for the past 12 months. Up volume during this time has been much lower. This is happening at the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level after a protracted starting in 2012. This is making a round top. It has taken a long time. My belief is we will see large declines in 2016. I won't try to forecast how far...

GarryBartsch

The pair has made three tries at 1.34 and failed. We see upper shadows indicating rejection of higher prices. I don't see any positive out of Canada's new Liberal government to drive the loonie higher so am assuming any rise would be due the move up in crude which could come do to geopolitics, supply/demand issues, or even a falling USD due to a Fed rate hike...

GarryBartsch

Large volume eclipsed only by the other buying candle 7 months ago. This is likely the bottom and oil will be entering a new bull move.

GarryBartsch

S&P 500 is putting in a rounding top, RSI has peaked and is rolling over, %R is the same, and price is rejecting the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. Looking to the ES we see volume heaviest on sell bars in the last months. This amazing bull market is probably done.

GarryBartsch

My last idea was that the stock market might burst up from a descending channel and move up decently. It did. Now I'm starting to grow wary: earlier than I hoped. I think what it's doing now - advancing bit by bit without a pullback - is convincing people who missed the bottom that it's safe to buy now. I don't think so it's so safe now. 2045 was safe. My biggest...

GarryBartsch

My last comment on S&P 500 was the market has been pulling back in a channel and could break to the upside. The break up is exactly what we got and it's a lot to be thankful for. With Greece uncertainty at a lower level and Fed expectations clearer the market has decided to move up. My expectation is for a not-short lived moved. Can the market advance for 2-4 weeks?

GarryBartsch

Or could the decline be a pullback which is almost over? It is not a total stretch to chart the decline for the last weeks as a falling channel. If such is the case bulls may have a hope since falling channels eventually run their course and moves up ensue. One feature of falling channels that is very common is a false move up and out which fails miserably...

GarryBartsch

After moving sideways for weeks oil has declined 50%. Today's sell-off feels like a panic and IMHO a bit extreme. Much like throwing the baby out with the bath water. My suspicion is oil doesn't decline a lot more. Time to watch for price to stabilize.

GarryBartsch

Four day pull back ends with bullish engulfing pair one day before Wednesday's inventory reports. The bull position will be helped a lot by a strong surge tomorrow.

GarryBartsch

Indeed buying in the green was a good idea but the market looks tired and susceptible to a pullback - maybe. I would certainly NOT open new longs here.

GarryBartsch

A disappointing drop yesterday with buyers coming in and holding up the pair. Oil action was poor as well; no surge. I have no bearish forecast now for this pair. Time is needed for a new setup.