GarryBartsch

GarryBartsch

After a month or so of chopping about the S&P 500 is right back to horizontal resistance. On the 4 hour chart it's overbought now. Overall we can see a clear wide rising channel. Does it head for the top or the bottom? I don't know but my hunch is top. The first clue will be how it works off the short term overbought condition. If it gets oversold on only a small...

GarryBartsch

Is this a picture of a market undergoing distribution? It surely looks like it to me. BUT: It is not going down with one heck of a fight. For me it's a case of shorting on rally's until 2115 is well broken. AND: there is surely the possibility the market can get up and through this.

GarryBartsch

2115 is becoming a formidable barrier. It was a good place to start shorting today. One has to be very nimble to catch these moves in the last month since the market is trendless. Maybe it's making a top? Maybe it's resting to go more? Till it can get through 2115 I'm watching for short entries.

GarryBartsch

It's in a declining channel and at most bearish could actually get back in the channel and the best case is price drops till it hits falling support. * BUT: TIGHT STOP in case!

GarryBartsch

After chopping for about a week S&P 500 falls through support like a lead fishing weight through water. It's oversold on 4 hour chart. Will it bounce? Maybe. But it just fell through so any rally would be a new short entry. 2040-2030 look like support levels.

GarryBartsch

S&P 500 has been trendless chopping around in an arc type area. It sits now just above support. Only the most skilled and nibble trader could have made money in the last short while but we should get a profitable move soon. To the downside 2040-2030 looks like first support. Edit: I removed some short term trend lines since the chart was getting cluttered.

GarryBartsch

Libya or not oil has been advancing and today's breakout on higher volume tips the market's hand. It wants up. It's overbought now and we have time till Wednesday to reflect on this move. The trend in place before the sideways range was the clue for today's move.

GarryBartsch

This is going to be a nail biter. After the surge on big volume traders have cooled their heels and let price move sideways; volume is declining. Because price entered this range from below, got here with a good push, I won't be surprised to see it rise more. But the rise from the bottom has been swift and it also would not surprise to see the new up-trend tested....

GarryBartsch

As suspected S&P 500 trying to get back into the channel it just fell out of. It's a big job to get back in (and it would mean a very strong move). But the market is not tanking as a certain television commentator said would happen immediately. The strength is surprising me. I'm short and adding more but I'm also not certain I won't have to cover at a loss...

GarryBartsch

The move comes on heavy volume. Does not bode well for the immediate future of this stock. Edit: I misnamed the candle combination. That should be dark cloud cover . I would look for chances to short AAPL in the coming days.

GarryBartsch

Strong candle with no wicks on either end. A better liftoff than the '09 recovery. I can't say what form this recovery will take. But oil is of to a good start. Sentiment is negative. Expectations are grim.

GarryBartsch

It should now try to get back into it: that happens so often. IF it can't - and I think it will take a huge effort - we should see some new lows in the days to come. But the force is strong with this one and it's not going down without a fight.

GarryBartsch

After bursting out of a symmetrical triangle on very good volume oil formed somewhat of a tight sideways pattern and looks set to go up more.

GarryBartsch

This is a market that doesn't want to die. But beware if the lower trend line of this short rising channel lets go. I would expect a wee bit of a decline. Still the USD is weakening seriously and that likely means a further dovish Fed is being discounted. Might support the market.

GarryBartsch

Weakness into the close was disappointing but after price popping up like this we can look for higher prices in the coming weeks. Tomorrow is the end of the month and this level will prove to be a more solid rise than the first good rise after the '09 crash.

GarryBartsch

S&P 500 overbought now with 1.5 hours till close. Been a decent move so far but lets see if it holds that momentum into the close.

GarryBartsch

It took 4-5 tries but S&P 500 has broken though resistance. And as expected has squirted through on some likely short covering.

GarryBartsch

Very nice behavior.