US10Y - US02Y , "Ten minus two" yield curve is what everyone talks about but I think if you look at all the yields together it's a much clearer story. Only have data going back to 2002 :( Light Gray Areas Indicate Recessions PS there are a few uncommonly used government yields that I've hidden to make the graph easier to read. You can unhide them if you want.
US10Y - US02Y, "Ten minus two" yield curve is what everyone talks about but I think if you look at all the yield curves together it's a much clearer story. Only have data going back to 2002 :( Light Gray Areas Indicate Recessions PS there are a few uncommonly used government yields that I've hidden to make the graph easier to read. You can unhide them if you want.
This time comparing S&P 500, Fed Rate and YoY Inflation
Paul Volcker served as Fed Chair from 1979 to 1987 and is regarded as an inflation hawk that finally got inflation under control. S&P 500 drawdown was about 27%.
The market didn't bottom until 91 days AFTER the Fed reversed course and Inflation didn't revert to normal until much later.
The market didn't bottom until months after the Fed reversed course and Unemployment didn't reverse until much later.