Goose96

Goose96 Updated 

The rand rode a wave of both local and international positive factors through the year. The local election results along with the new GNU attracted buyers back to the SA bond market in the first half of the year while internationally, sustained risk-on sentiment from the Fed’s aggressive 50bps rate cut in September and a 30% Bull Run in gold prices allowed the...

Goose96 Updated 

The USDZAR pair is currently trading in a tight range between 18.22, the 200-day MA resistance rate, and 17.90, the 38.2% Fibo retracement level. These are the critical rates I’m watching in the lead up to the last non-farm payrolls print for the year this Friday. Additionally Fed chair Powell will also speak later this week. My original idea for a 5-wave...

Goose96

The final wave of a 5-wave impulse is on the cards for the DXY which will allow the index to move towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 109. The DXY has been range bound between 100 and 107 for more than a year and we may finally see a break out of this range. The DXY is currently testing the blue downward trend line that now serves as a neckline and a failed...

Goose96

Risk-off sentiment doesn’t seem to last long in this current market despite all the geopolitical tensions, election volatility and inflation fears we witnessed this year. In spite of all the volatility and the odd carry trade squeeze the SPX is set to end the year up more than 25%, its second year on the trot of more than 20% gains. Never the less the US10 is on...

Goose96 Updated 

The rand held up well despite the spike in volatility over the past two week however the macroeconomic back drop does not bode well for our local unit. The carry trade is unwinding forcing investors to close their Yen shorts which is the cause of the massive spike in volatility. The Nikkei is down 8% while the USDJPY has already dropped another 2% in early...

Goose96 Updated 

The rand has been on the back foot in the second half of July despite the broad based dollar weakness which has seen the USDZAR pair touch a high of 18.53. The rand has however managed to pull the pair back below the 50-day MA rate at 18.30. The critical level to watch is the blue resistance range between 18.50 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of 18.56. A...

Goose96 Updated 

Possible double top on the 4H in the blue resistance range between 18.50 and the 61.8% FIbo rate at 18.55. There is also some divergence on the RSI which supports a downside break out of the rising wedge. Lots of event volatility this week as highlighted in the daily timeframe idea.

Goose96

The DXY touched the bottom of the downward channel last week but it managed to claw its back onto the 200-day MA support at 104.34. The DXY is trading near oversold zones and a retest of the 50-day MA, at 104.89, will likely be its next move. A surprise cut by the Fed will however see the DXY tumble onto the 38.2% support at 103.12 but our base case is for a...

Goose96

The rand is enjoying its post-election optimism and the broad-based decline in the dollar is adding strength to the currents. A break below the 18.12 support will confirm the move lower towards 17.86. The fact that the pair tested, but couldn’t hold, levels above the 61.8% Fibo at 18.56 and the 50-day MA at 18.38 is rand positive coupled with the fact that...

Goose96

The US dollar sold off aggressively last week while Americans were celebrating their independence. The week started with extremely weak manufacturing and non-manufacturing results from the US for the month of June followed by the FOMC meeting minutes which was dominated by the Feds acknowledgment that price pressures were easing before the June non-farm payrolls...

Goose96

Just an extension of my previous idea. Still expecting another wave higher after the support at 104 held its ground.

Goose96 Updated 

The volatility of the rand is forcing us to “when in doubt zoom out.” Last week the rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 18.47 but the blue support range held its ground. The two critical rates to watch now is the 200-day MA support at 18.78 and the 61.8% Fibo resistance rate of 18.87. A break above 18.87 will allow the pair to test levels above the blue...

Goose96

The Fed’s rate decision and FOMC statement will thus take center stage this week but the latest US CPI figures for the month of May will also be released along with the US 10-year and 30-year bond auctions. The 200-day MA of 4.35% has held support and another Fed pause will allow yields to rise and re-test levels above 4.50%

Goose96

The DXY caught support off of the red support range on the 50% Fibo retracement level at 103.97. A stronger or in line with expectations US CPI this week coupled with the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.50% will allow the DXY to break above the 50-day MA rate of 105.09 and move higher towards the first resistance level of 105.96. Over the longer term a...

Goose96

The DXY caught support off of the red support range on the 50% Fibo retracement level at 103.97. A stronger or in line with expectations US CPI this week coupled with the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.50% will allow the DXY to break above the 50-day MA rate of 105.09 and move higher towards the first resistance level of 105.96. Over the longer term a...

Goose96

Similarly to the DXY, the US 10-year yield is showing signs of also setting up for another leg higher which will allow yields to climb back towards the 5.00% handle. The mainstream narrative however is that yields has peaked but another fresh US bond sell-off sparked by global geopolitical tension could easily allow yields to spike higher.

Goose96

The broad based dollar index has held up well and the 200-day MA support level at 104.43 is keeping the dollar from further depreciation. The DXY is looking set to make another leg higher if the ECB serve markets with a rate cut this week. The ECB, along with the Bank of England, has been very outspoken recently that they plan to diverge from the Fed’s monetary...

Goose96

The rand managed a strong recovery to a low of 18.02 in the lead up to the national elections. This move was largely due to the strong precious metal prices, particularly platinum, and the dollar which remained relatively range bound. The critical resistance levels to watch are the 200-day MA at 18.77 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 18.87 (very satisfying...