Goose96

Goose96 Updated 

The SARB will announce their latest repo rate on Thursday and expectations are for the SARB to leave rates unchanged at 8.25%. The SARB will lag the Fed when it comes to rate cuts so South Africans should, on a best case scenario, only expect rate cuts in the back-end of the year. The SARB will not cut rates until the Fed has started cutting rates. The rand...

Goose96

The DXY is currently testing the major red downward trend line. A break above this trend line will allow the index to re-test the 61.8% Fibo rate of 104.78. It is extremely difficult to call the FX markets now but the 50-day MA looks set to cross above the 200-day MA which will be a bullish golden cross indicator. I believe the dollar will continue to gain until...

Goose96

The pair has climbed back into the blue wedge after finding support on the Feb 2024 low of 18.53. 18.97 is the rate to watch. A break above will allow the pair to test the top-end of the wedge again, resistance at 19.20. On the other hand, if the rand manages to hold the pair below 18.97 after the Fed decision to leave rates unchanged, it will allow the rand to...

Goose96

The rand may be on the ropes today if it can't break below 18.78. Fed pause is also expected to shake things up and support the recent dollar strength.

Goose96

The top side of the wedge held its ground and the break below the 61.8% Fibo at 19.87 has allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50- and 200-day MA. There is strong support levels at 19.75 and 19.67 and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls print will determine whether this is the long awaited break-out of the blue wedge or a fake-out. A weaker than expected NFP...

Goose96 Updated 

The rand had a tough week at the office following the budget speech which saw the USD/ZAR pair touch a 4-month high of 19.40. The pair is now testing the downward blue trend line which forms the blue wedge pattern in place since 2Q2023. A break above this trend line would see the rand fold to 19.63 and possibly higher towards the all-time highs of 19.94. The...

Goose96

S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recorded fresh all-time highs last week. Again, is it necessary for the Fed to cut rates given the strong performance in US indices and steady US data as of late? There is however strong divergence on the RSI which could be an early sign for a pull back on to the 50-day MA of $4,850. The US GDP results for the 4Q2023 is expected to show a...

Goose96

The DXY recorded its first weekly loss for the year last week as the major red downward trendline and the 61.8 Fibo retracement rate of 104.80 held its ground. The DXY is currently sitting on the 200-day MA level of 103.73 and it will most likely test levels below this rate this week with the US GDP and US PCE prints on the schedule for this week. A failed break...

Goose96 Updated 

Our beloved rand seems to be on the ropes again after a stronger than expected US CPI print. The stronger than expected US CPI is cooling last year’s aggressive rate cut expectations which is dollar positive and drives risk-off sentiment, which is rand negative. Zooming out, the USD/ZAR pair has been in a wedge pattern since the rand made its 2Q2023 recovery...

Goose96

Expecting a pullback to re-test the 50-day MA at $4,820 which coincides with the previous ATH. Strong divergence on the daily RSI serves as technical evidence for the move lower.

Goose96

The pair is currently testing the 61.8% Fibo level at 18.97 and we have the psychological resistance rate sitting at 19.00. A break above this resistance range will see the rand slide to the top end of the current blue downward trend line which coincides with the red resistance range between 19.15 and 19.30. A failed break above 19.00 will allow the rand to pull...

Goose96

The rand folded on Friday after the broad-based rise in the dollar. The rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 18.53 but this support rate held its ground. The pair still remains in the wedge pattern between the two blue trend lines and technically the higher low is not positive for the rand. I’m expecting a re-test of the 61.8% Fibo rate of 18.97 this week and...

Goose96

US 10-year yield spiked on Friday which strengthened the 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 3.931%. The main resistance rates now sit at 4.057% and 4.115%, the 50- and 200-day MA’s. Given the lower high made last week I suspect the next move will be higher towards the 38.2% Fibo rate of 4.347% so keep your eyes on this week’s US 10-year bond auction.

Goose96

The DXY spiked aggressively on Friday after the stronger than expected US non-farm payroll print which allowed the index to break above the 200-day MA resistance rate of 103.55. The 220-day MA will now switch to a support level and a move higher towards the red trend line and the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of 104.79 looks like the next move before the RSI...

Goose96 Updated 

High event risk today with the SARB rate decision (they'll hold rates at 8.25%) and US GDP results. The rand will take its que from the dollar but technically a move lower towards the 200-day and 50-day MA looks likely, perhaps even deeper towards 61.8% Fibo at 18.53.

Goose96

The index has put on a resounding 18% gain since the end of October 2023 after central banks started singing the tunes for rates cuts in 2024. Technically the index does looks a bit over extended at the moment given the divergence of the RSI indicator and I’m expecting a re-test of the 50-day MA soon which currently sits at $4,638.

Goose96

At the moment, if crude holds above the 50-day MA level of $78.50, we could soon see a big move higher towards the 38.2% Fibo level of $93.37. The 200-day MA and 23.6% Fibo levels will however offer resistance to this move.

Goose96

The DXY is currently dancing with the 200-day MA resistance rate of 103.46 after its strong start to the year. The dollar index is however nearing the overbought zone on the RSI but it still has room to move higher depending on the strength of the 200-day MA resistance. It will be a very interesting week given the interest rate decisions from the European Central...