Goose96

Goose96

The pair broke above the 200-day MA last week which saw it briefly touch levels above 19.00. A failed break above the red resistance range between 19.15 and 19.30 will be rand positive which could allow the rand to pull the pair back below 18.50. Zooming out you will notice that the pair is working into a wedge, illustrated by the blue trend lines and in which...

Goose96

The rand has now given back almost half of its October gains following the ill received CPI figures and SARB interest rate decision. The rand slide roughly 2.5% last week which saw the USD/ZAR pair touch a high of 18.96. Luckily the rand managed to keep the pair below the critical 50-day MA rate of 18.82, but a break above this rate could see the rand slide...

Goose96

The OPEC+ meeting that was scheduled to take place this weekend was postponed after disagreements from some of the African nations regarding the cartels production quotas. OPEC’s African members Angola and Nigeria have reportedly asked to have a higher production ceiling next year, after taking a cut in their quotas at the June 2023 meeting of OPEC+ as they had...

Goose96

The weaker than expected US CPI results sparked a prompt risk-on rally which sent the dollar and US bond yields tumbling. The rand caught a strong bid off the back of this boosted risk-on sentiment which allowed the rand to pull the pair all the way onto the blue support line at 18.13. The critical rate to keep an eye out for now is the black 61.8% Fibo...

Goose96

The rand has been volatile recently due to the swings in the global interest rate expectations. The SARB will most likely act in lock step with the Fed this week which will see the SARB keep the SA repo rate at 8.25%. The rand will be at the mercy of global investor sentiment regardless of how hawkish the SARB will be, but a hawkish tone is expected to support the...

Goose96

The greenback’s recovery is allowing it to dance with the 50-day MA at 105.84. A failed break above this rate will see the DXY slide into the support range around 104.73. It’s difficult to gauge investor risk appetite at the moment but I personally predict the current dollar weakness to be a bullish pullback for the greenback which will send the DXY to 107.11.

Goose96

The price of Brent crude has now given back all of the gains since the start of the conflict in the Middle East. The 200-day MA price of $82 is the critical price level to watch. A failed break below will be an early sign of another 5-wave impulse high toward $100 pb.

Goose96

The DXY is currently testing the 50-day MA which has switched from a support to a resistance, sitting around 105.766. A break back above the 50-day MA will be a very bullish sign. In terms of support, a break below the support range between 104.400 and 104.725. Fundamentals for the dollar for the remainder of the 4Q2023: There were no surprises with the...

Goose96

The US 10-year yield is showing signs of topping out after recently touching a 16-year high just above 5.00%. It’s still too early to confirm that long-term yields have topped out but given the entrenched inflation, risk-off sentiment and growing US government debt, US long-term yields will probably remain elevated until the Fed’s interest rate policy becomes...

Goose96

The DXY inched higher by 0.38% last week after the 50-day MA level of 105.40 held its ground. The first resistance level to watch currently sits at 107.40 and a re-test of this level looks likely given the events on the calendar for this week. I am leaning towards continued dollar strength for the 4Q2023.

Goose96

Our local unit currently remains in the range between 18.80 and 19.12. We need to see a breakout of this range to determine what direction the rand will take but for now the rand remains at the mercy of swings in investor sentiment. The dance with the 50-day MA at 18.95 will continue this week and a negative tone from the Treasury budget and continued global...

Goose96 Updated 

The pair is currently dancing with the 50-day MA rate of 18.97, which is a critical rate to watch. A failed break back above the 50-day MA will allow the rand to pull the pair below 18.80 with a possible move lower towards the 200-day MA rate of 18.43. A break above the 50-day MA will however signal another leg higher towards 19.90 for the pair. It’s too early to...

Goose96

Tick tick... Historic break out of the downward channel. Only yield curve control will get yields back into the channel. Is the next phase of QE going to be yield curve control...

Goose96

DXY is testing the top of the downward trendline and the July high of 103.578 which coincide with the 200-day MA level of 103.216. The DXY is looking quite overbought at the moment according to the RSI so a pullback towards the critical 61.8% Fibo retracement level of 102.277, which coincides with the 50-day MA level of 102.185, seems very likely. A failed...

Goose96

If the support on the 200-day MA and 50-day MA levels of $81 and $80 holds its ground, I expect brent crude to test the 38.2% Fibo retracement level of $93.50 pb.

Goose96

Nice bullish pullback on CRB core commodities index after hitting resistance on the 38.2% Fibo retracement level of 283. Golden cross is also imminent (50-day crossing 200-day MA). A break below the 23.6% Fibo level of 272 will however invalidate the idea. Fundamentally however, the weak data and economic growth from China is negative for commodities.

Goose96 Updated 

US 10-year bond yields have been trending lower since Oct 2022 after touching high around 4.250%. The rise in the 10-year yield from the past two weeks saw yields stop just short of the blue 61.8% Fibo level of 3.885%. Yields are currently testing the 200-day MA rate of 3.649% and a break below will allow bonds to rally further towards the 50-day MA rate of 5.525%...

Goose96 Updated 

It wasn’t smooth sailing for the rand last week after the local unit depreciated by roughly 3.00%. The USDZAR pair is forming a 5-wave impulse pattern which could see the rand slide further towards the 19.30’s. The MACD is holding a buy signal and the RSI still has room to move higher before hitting overbought zones. A break below 18.66 will however invalidate the idea.