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Greeks_live

After several days of sustained declines, BTC realized volatility has risen sharply again, and all major term IVs have reached their highest levels in almost a year. Market expectations for volatility are even higher than during the record highs, and looking at the market data, this is mainly due to the significantly higher prices of short-term put...

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Bitcoin trading activity is now significantly impacted by U.S. stock trading hours, with trading activity being less active over the weekend and the market being more subdued. Almost all of today's Block trades were traded in spread, with sell call bull spreads traded the most, followed by sell put bear spreads, and market sentiment for BTC&ETH has been relatively...

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This week is an important macro week, with a number of major central banks, represented by the Fed's interest rate decision, set to announce interest rate decisions. Despite the general market expectation of consensus, the rate outcome and related central bank statements are still noteworthy. With strong economic data from the U.S., the odds are that this outcome...

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Bitcoin turned on a 10,000-USD plunge after a successful run at new all-time highs, at one point dropping below $60,000. Derivatives data, represented by futures basis spreads, went off across the board, with a flash crash at the peak of bullish Fomo sentiment. On the options, against the backdrop of the 10,000-USD plunge, options IVs for all major terms instead...

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This week is a big macro week, with U.S. unemployment data and some major central bank interest rate resolutions of note, and the main crypto-related event is the SEC's pending resolution of the Fidelity ethereum spot ETF application, which is highly unlikely to pass and the market now agrees is not likely. Spot buyers in the mainstream cryptocurrency market...

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BTC Block put options volume skyrocketed today, with a notional value of over $500 million. Two types of trades dominated —— one was a bear spread consisting of 55,000Put/50,000Put, and the other was orders below $45,000 to liquidate put option positions. These Block trades validate our previous suspicions that there are spot whales buying Protective Put, and...

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19,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 1.49, a Maxpain point of $55,000 and a notional value of $2 billion. 110,000 ETH options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.88, Maxpain point of $3,000 and notional value of $790 million. Crypto markets have been imposing this week, with Bitcoin topping $64,000 at one point, and all major...

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Back in U.S. trading hours, Bitcoin continues to surge past $56,000, just under 20% from its all-time-high, with the rapid rise driving all major term IVs up, with short-term options IVs rising significantly. The burst has also driven a firestorm in the block market, with more than 50 block orders with notional value higher than $5 million today, and several of...

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Options block trades have been very hot lately, and a Bitcoin butterfly spread with a notional value of $20 million was just traded. This single block trade was a newly opened options position betting that Bitcoin will fall slightly before 29March24, with $47,000 as the maximum profit point. It also carries a short implied volatility component, with a loss below...

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Today is Sunday and the daily ATM option IV is only 35% and yesterday's daily ATM option IV was only 30%, an example of how crypto market has been completely controlled by U.S. time lately. The weekend option IV has maintained the above pattern for several weeks now. Comparing the spot trend we see that weekend volatility is not significantly lower than weekday...

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21,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.9, a Maxpain point of $46,000 and a notional value of $1.1 billion. 200,000 ETH options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.62, Maxpain point of $2,400 and notional value of $570 million. The crypto market has been imposing this week, with Bitcoin topping $52,000, and all major term IVs...

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Bitcoin has been relatively quiet lately, and bitcoin options block trades have been relatively uneventful. But a huge block was traded that could lead the next leg of the market. Buy 1,500 sets of February wide straddles while selling 1,500 sets of March wide straddles to amortize the cost. The entire portfolio had a notional value of $260 million, and this order...

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22,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.66, a Maxpain point of $42,000 and a notional value of $960 million. 230,000 ETH options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.33, a Maxpain point of $2,300 and a notional value of $530 million. The crypto market was relatively flat this week, with RV and IV trending lower for major terms....

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Unsurprisingly no rate hike, but Fed hawkish statements still put pressure on stocks. With the probability of the first rate cut in May now looking the highest, the market will be subjected to high rates for more than 3 months yet, and the market is a bit too optimistic about funding liquidity. In terms of crypto options data, all major short term IV's have seen a...

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This week is a big macro week with many macroeconomic data releases centered on the Fed rate decision. However, overall expectations are consistent and the macro data is less correlated with crypto sentiment, with low IV's and little volatility expected from major terms at this time. the impact of the BTC spot ETF is over, and the impact of the grayscale selloff...

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94,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.51, a Maxpain point of $41,000 and a notional value of $3.75 billion. 932,000 ETH options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.31, Maxpain point of $2,300 and notional value of $2.07 billion. Cryptocurrencies are weaker this week, with the passage of the Bitcoin Spot ETF directly...

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Major cryptocurrencies are down across the board today, with Bitcoin effectively falling below $40,000 and Eth below $2,200. Short-term IVs are up slightly due to market volatility, but no large block orders have been seen yet. The day's trading continues to be dominated by sell call. Even during today's plunge, when hourly volume hit its largest for the month, it...

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Bitcoin fell below the $40,000 as short-term IVs recovered. Overall VRP(volatility risk premium) has risen, and the Skew curve is skewed towards put options. The above option data reflects the existence of a certain number of short-term panic orders in the market, the market bearish force has increased, but on the whole the long and short are relatively balanced,...