GustavFourie96

GustavFourie96 Updated 

USD/ZAR log scale. The pair broke below two major support rates last week, the 200 week MA and the 0.618 Fib retracement rate. The current target range is between 13.80 and 14.00 with the possibility of a longer-term drop towards 13.18. A break below the black trendline will see the pair slide into the green target range.

GustavFourie96

The pair failed to move out of the blue consolidation range as it was capped by the 30-day MA. The 30- and 50-day MA range is a major resistance range, I don't see it breaking past it. Exporters and month-end trades have pushed the pair above the 20-day MA but this bout of dollar strength will be short lived. Target range between 13.80 and 14.00. Daily RSI is also...

GustavFourie96

The DXY is currently testing the 61.8% Fibo retracement level at 90.830. A failed break below will allow the DXY to retrace into the range between 91.822 to 92.437. The MACD is showing early signs of rolling over, the RSI is nearing the oversold zone and the stochastic indicator is consolidating in the oversold zone. 1. Fundamentally the dollar will be at the...

GustavFourie96

I'm expecting the resistance rate at 1.21044 to hold followed by a move into the blue target area if the pair manages to break below 1.992.

GustavFourie96

If the euro fails to pull the pair above 1.21044 I expect the pair to slide back onto the 200-day MA rate of 1.19103. Dollar is also deeply oversold which supports the pull back.

GustavFourie96

Expecting a move back to the range between 14.50 and 14.68 before the pair drops to the psychological 14.00 rate. Stochastic indicator is also working into a wedge and the buy signal supports a move higher this week.

GustavFourie96

Move towards the lower bound of the upward channel if the dollar manages to pull the pair below the 200-day MA.

GustavFourie96 Updated 

Possible dollar correction but fundamental factors (democrat blue wave) has me a bit skeptical...

GustavFourie96 Updated 

A failed channel break could see the index drop onto the black neckline. Divergence on the RSI.

GustavFourie96

The pair has been bouncing between the 200-week MA and 100-week MA since the start of the year. The 200-week MA is a strong support rate for the pair and a strong catalyst will be needed for the rand to sustain rates below this MA (such as the "Ramaphoria" period in 2017). Technical indicators are favoring a topside break out of the downward channel from 2020....

GustavFourie96

I'm not sure if I fundamentally support this view but there is some divergence on the RSI and it seems the pair has completed its ABC corrective wave.

GustavFourie96

The DXY is hitting some resistance on the 200-day MA and the upwards channel. A break above could see the index climb towards 94.750 but the RSI is nearing overbought zones which could slow this move.

GustavFourie96

If the pair manages to break above the 50-day MA and the downward channel from 2020 (which also lines up satisfyingly with the 100-day MA) we could see a move towards 15.65 and the completion of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. The rand has however been resilient to the broad based dollar gains this week. The MACD also seems to be rolling over which is rand...

GustavFourie96

FOMC meeting this week Wednesday could cool down the rise in bond yields, if the Fed decides to roll the SLR (supplementary leverage ration). RSI is also showing divergence.

GustavFourie96

Elliot wave towards 200-day MA

GustavFourie96

Possible impulse move on USD/ZAR 4H.

GustavFourie96

USDZAR medium term outlook

GustavFourie96

Inverse of USD/ZAR