HK_L61

HK_L61

Charts sez it all. Although I'd like to add it amazes me how many Gurus fail to comprehend what is ongoing. Simply amazing. Think Bank Credit. Think UK Mortagage Halt. Think EuroDollar. __________________________________________________ Good Luck.

HK_L61

Let's dispense with the Master O' Obvious stuff straight away. Pick an Adjective - it won't rhyme with Bullish. It may, however, be cringeworthy. NQ below 200 W SMA. What lay ahead remains up to 3588 for the ES Futures, *Note the 200SMA Weekly is just below this most important of level @ 3585.55. Powell - simple... NO...

HK_L61

Growth, Employment, Inflation - aka what's left of the Economy. 1. Employment - seeking roughly a reduction of 12 Million Jobs. 2. Growth - reduction of 50% for S&P 500 from Highs. 3. Inflation - Leads until Rate Lag breaks everything. _________________________________________________________________________________ Capital Stocks Powell - Bonds are...

HK_L61 Updated 

Jackson Hole, CPI, and FOMC are rearview. Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the Target Range? That is a suicide, assured. See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and make adjustments among our small group of live...

HK_L61 Updated 

FOMC @ 2:00 PM EST reaction will see one of 3 Events: 1. 75BPS is priced - leading to a move higher to recent intra-week Highs. 2. 75BPS is priced - leading to a tighter range into Powell. 3. 100 - 125 BPS is not priced - leading to a breakdown and a VIXplosion to 31 and VIX Curve inversion. Powell's conviction @ 2:30 PM EST sets the Equity Complex in...

HK_L61 Updated 

Weekly Engulfing Charts are clearly not a preferred look for the Buy Side and those riding the Bullish Tilt-O-Whirl - Bodies are being flung everywhere. The Dollar is doing its thing, it ran to our PO at 107.65 with a 107.67 print and reversed yet again. it's been a pattern as the EuroDollar continues the ties that bind, Dollar shortages create demand until the...

HK_L61

The 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate. A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens. Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63 in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a...

HK_L61

Options Leverage has become increasingly popular over the past decade. In the past 30 months, their popularity has risen significantly relative to the Underlying Instrument. Increasingly so, Options tend to move Prices through the effects of Leverage. This is why we see Stocks Split, it vastly reduces the Price of Entry and increases the Potential for increased...

HK_L61

Institutional Protection (Hedging) reached an All-Time High on the September 16th Quad Witch Expiration. This position dwarfs prior hedging Highs by 103% and is rising by an additional $8 Billion added to the hoard of Puts Friday. Not only are the positions outsized - it was 308% of 2008's Hedging....

HK_L61 Updated 

The USD pulled back overnight on the ECB's 75 BPS Hike, until the October 21st FOMC Rate decision is announced the DXY can easily see downside pressure. Traders began to move against the Dollar as Major Asian Markets opened and again - ahead of the EU Session open @ 3 AM EST, by 3:30 AM EST. The Inversion lift was provided to the ES NQ YM RTY GC & SI @ 3 AM...

HK_L61 Updated 

Higher lows are required to provide the Flip into Higher Markets off of the Lows at the 390.85 Level. 394 is backtesting Support 399.50 is the initial Resistance. Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer Credit @ 3 PM...

HK_L61 Updated 

August did not end well for Buyers. Rate Creep across the curve applied pronounced pressure. RISK OFF is in trade across all Sectors within the X Complex. TNX from a Rate perspective - Rate instability and lower rates? At present, No. Bond VX is kicking up. It is however not damaging Banks as of yet, Financials are hanging on... slightly. Will the VIX Spike...

HK_L61 Updated 

What a mess, a very violent and choppy mess of a Market. Let's see if they can recapture the 377... It's a Buy/Sell Hall of Mirrors with the 1 Hour Death Cross being a 199/377 2X affair. The Range continues to expand - from 388 to 404s For the ES - 3910 to 4120. NQ - 12070 to 12714/12818 ________________________________________________ The week is young,...

HK_L61

8 Minutes and 49 Seconds: "The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal." "Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance." "While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market...

HK_L61

Friday was rough for Traders' offsides. I'm reluctant to even state the obvious at this point as it is self-evident. If you were on the incorrect side, feel for you as it was an insidious trap. In conversations with Traders, the large majority were Buyers for Friday. My bias was lower and a Negative close as SPX buyers had positioned for the Kill. The Falcon and...

HK_L61 Updated 

Many Sellers (Bears) missed the Selloff, and many Buyers (Bulls) failed to take profits at the 199 EMA tap. Frustration abounds and will remain leading to many emotional trades being placed for both sides. Indices traded into the Lows of their ranges and held for 3 days. Buyers need a TOSS to get things going to the upside for 420+. Buyers need to not hear...

HK_L61

How often does the Market reward both when they are aligned? Not often. Rare to see both seeking Prices to move higher, and potentially why Wall Street will shake things up with a few surprises. Volumes declined significantly yesterday. NVDA reports today. ________________________________________________________ In all probability, they will attempt to...

HK_L61 Updated 

Increasingly, competitive crosscurrents are creating notional Equity Directional disturbances. A large number of Investors/Traders have convinced themselves the Federal Reserve was attempting to Bluff the Markets. Running Indexes up off the Mid-June at the greatest rate of change in history once the SloMo began to move through its varying psychological...