HK_L61

HK_L61 Updated 

A solid Tip: Ignoring the CME Fed Watch Tool is a best practice as it is now moving around the Cake Walk Lines and blurring them with swings in sentiment. Please observe what the FED actually controls (outside of rando YCC). 2YY or the 2 Year Yield Futures is the best practice. The Spread between EFF (Effective Federal Funds Rate) and the 2YY tells you ALL you...

HK_L61

Lower, far lower lows are ahead. SPY Gaps: 400.76 338.66 285.67 235.77 Every one of these will be filled from October 2023 to March 2024. The DX will return to 125. Bond Yields 4 to 6% at a minimum regardless of the FED's utter nonsense. _____________________________________________________________ Keep it simple, the Indices will...

HK_L61 Updated 

WE REMAIN IN A BEAR MARKET, regardless of the Retracement. The 50SMA is 35 handles below the 200SMA. Bullish? Definetely not. That said, the Riggers on the Trigger will continue to bleed out every last cent prior to the next sudden and very sharp decline. For now they have the Ball, but "Inflation is at Zero" from the Admin has found new heights of...

HK_L61 Updated 

Housing continues to implode along with China's recent Urban Outfitters. 8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) July 1.63 million 1.70 million 8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) July 1.52 million 1.56 million Interesting China avoided its Ecuminiopolis Economy... it's worse, of course. The Cerveza Sickness compounds across all regions. The Hot Topic is China leaving...

HK_L61 Updated 

The VX Complex comes under duress during Wall Streets Summer Fun Run. Buying is an unprofitable game. UVXY / VXX / SVXY is an assured loss. When UVXY was trading over 11, I warned one trader off the Calls prior to the plunge, suggesting it would trade to 9.09 and likely knife right through it. Tis the season for the Crims to run the table - even collaring the...

HK_L61 Updated 

Trading pleasure abounds as the FED's non-sense continues unabated. A thrill ride out of Bear Market Territory for ES 3849.50, the NQ was the laggard at 13414. 13392 the larger Pivot for the NQ Futures, a hidden one, but the DOM suits it rather well. "Exiting the Bear Market" is the new mantra, narrative, and fresh bullhorn as we see "Inflation - Come Off" -...

HK_L61 Updated 

A lifelong student of Monetary History, Macro/Micro Economics - at this particular point in time, an obligation needs to be fulfilled. We tend to be Anglo-Centric as Americans. Yes, we do observe Global Markets and their underlying dynamics as core to one's thesis for Trading purposes. All is well and good in that vain. Unfortunately, it is barely the tip of...

HK_L61 Updated 

Hands me a ticket, smiles, and whispers good luck It ought to be easy, ought to be simple enough You've got to learn to live with what you can't rise above "We choose Truth over Facts." __________________________________________________ How will the Grift continue for now? Expect the following (Complete Bullsh_t) Current 12-month EPS: 203.97 Reported Mar...

HK_L61 Updated 

2007 Levels will be upcoming into October 2023. Summer Counter-Trend has more room for the upside. The Monthly Risk Range is at extraordinary risk. "Others" are getting it all together for the Early Fall Classic. Extreme patience is required for the SELL, it will continue to develop over time, blink and you'll miss it. Financial Media continues to caution...

HK_L61

Nancy and the Gang anxiously await the Senates Taxpayer handout to the Industry. Po Nancy, $107 Million simply is not enough for her and Pablo the Shark Tank Drunk. Nancy had to gobble $341K in losses on NVDA after exiting her 25K Shares in a loss due to slime lights a shinning. Bravo, add 3 zeros and it's all good. Everyone should lose a hand. Preferably, a...

HK_L61 Updated 

GDP, @ 8:30 AM EST. Apple, Amazon, Intel, and Roku round out the Tech kink movers after the NYSE Close. Wild times ahead today. 3910 remains the LIS for the ES to head lower with a Gap @ 3922. EPS has been an abject disaster - with grossly lowered EPS Estimates, Collapsing NETs and large...

HK_L61 Updated 

TECH Bellwethers after the NYSE Close Today. Apple Changes Everything - 143 to 163 Range possible. Life extensions for Tech are DX, TNX, and Chips Bill finalized by the Senate 62 to 34 with a $282 Billion Giveaway ready for the Criminals in the House. ______________________________________________ The new Mid-Term distraction, forget Hunter and Joey, focus on...

HK_L61

The Federal Reserve will suggest they projected a slowdown in Economic activity. Effect Indicated, Effect Observed. Solid work. _______________________________________________________________________ Outside of the Matrix, the Depression slumbers on within the confines of Real Sentiment. ....The Deal Breaker. "7" was misstated - "6" is the GDI hedonic, it's...

HK_L61

The BDI or Baltic Dry Index - measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide. For 2022 - the BDI is down -34.14%. Ukraine was a large disruption for Grains - Barley, Corn, and Wheat. Factually had material impact. The index's value is generated by the demand for the raw materials and the supply of ships available to transport them. There is absolutely no...

HK_L61

The week of heavy is ahead. A Week where much will be determined, Momentum and Trend ...Trends that remain Bearish. Patience, extreme Patience is a requirement. VX will find direction into the Fall Classic, it will likely arrive early, ahead of the usual Seasonal starts and fits which surround Labor Day. Apple will set the stage for what comes next as will the...

HK_L61

The Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a...

HK_L61

Call Buyers were able to earn off the July 15th Gamma Squeeze into the Day prior to Expiry July 22nd, Friday. Wall Street managed a near-perfect Trifecta on the move, flipping the trade on its head into the Close Thursday. Overbought Conditions moving into Friday assure the Squeeze has a higher probability of...

HK_L61

There is a substantial opportunity setting up for the Cash VIX, Calls are obviously higher into Friday's RT, but should be followed out to and through Feb 2023 at the 25 and 35 Levels. The Arbs are beginning to stretch the Bands to extremes, this almost always provides an outsized opportunity at Levels. 24.30 Was the July Futures Contract Support which traded...