HandsomeSloth

HandsomeSloth

Analysis: - LT trend since 2012 shows ~$100 as key support level, even if support (prior resistance now support) from 2014 fails. - $100 is 67% off of the recent high of $306. Ouch! But this also means there's large upside to get back to those levels. Despite Trump admin opposition to renewables, FSLR is well positioned with US manufacturing capability, a ...

HandsomeSloth

Trends: - LT parallel channel shown marks some key trendlines for the company since IPO - LT falling wedge intersects the bottom of this channel H2 2025 --> a buying opportunity above $50. If that breaks, falling wedge ends around $35, a 30% downside (or 40% vs today's price). - The early 2023 peak aligned with peak in revenue and net income (decline matched...

HandsomeSloth

Technicals and Fundamentals - Divergence marked the top - 50-60% pull-backs common --> $95 or $120 - Revenue growing YoY (and backlog is not fully dependent on Ukraine) - Broke below 3-year trendline since 2022 lows, next long-term trendline support at 9-year trendline (also near $95) - 30-40% gross margins. Lower Net income margins (as investing in growth:...

HandsomeSloth

For the last 4 years (2020-2024), we have been in a narrow band where--generally speaking--SPY and QQQ have performed comparably. 2022 is the notable exception, where inflation increased rapidly and QQQ underperformed SPY. For the prior 12 years before that (2008-2020), QQQ outperformed SPY handedly. Inflation was low. Interest rates were held at ~0%. When you...

HandsomeSloth

This past week we bounced off of LT support in our large pennant. We could still break bearish or bullish, but right now we're at the low-end of the pennant. Buy below $160, sell closer to $200. This can go on for the rest of 2024 and into 2025.

HandsomeSloth Updated 

Head and shoulders on the daily chart. Neckline around 66. This is either a buy point or the sign to buy. High of 76 tested a few times over the last few weeks. H&S could lead to $56, $60, or $63. Support ranges. Nibble all the way down...?!

HandsomeSloth

We've got some different timeframes at play, but as of now the concepts are the same. What actually happens when the fed starts lowering rates?

HandsomeSloth

We've been forming a negative divergence on the daily for 2-3 months now. CRWD has been red hot. Margins are barely positive over the last few quarters (after a long-time being negative). But CRWD is still a $72 billion company trading at 24x revenue. Now is the time to do the mature thing and to take some profits. I'd suggest looking at the 200 SMA for...

HandsomeSloth

Earnings today were deemed by wall street as "good enough". That may be true, and the stock may be up today, but Revenue dropped 58% to $302.6 million, from $724.6 million a year ago. --> Since revenue has started declining, the stock is down. Market estimates expect a decline in revenue in 2024 vs 2023, so unless the correlation changes, or unless the company...

HandsomeSloth Updated 

The last 3-year trend and the long-term 10-year trend have now broken ~FALLING KNIFE~ style. PLUG has been a poster child for hydrogen. It may be most prominently known for providing fuel cell delivery vehicles to Amazon. There are several issues PLUG faces. To name a few: There are not enough electrolyzers to produce green hydrogen The price of green...

HandsomeSloth Updated 

Re-posting recent idea on NEE. Short-term troubles from round-top could put NEE in the $60s for a while ($55 support). Great long-term investment after that as we get back to the 40-year trend.

HandsomeSloth Updated 

Fundamentals: 1) BE produces fuel cells that can consume both hydrogen and natural gas. This natural gas component is key as it will allow its customers to smooth their transition from NG to H2. 2) BE is starting to produce electrolyzers. Cheap green hydrogen is hard to come by. Electrolyzers are effectively fuel cells operated in reverse. As such, the 2 GW...

HandsomeSloth

2024 could be another terrible year for renewables. Renewable stocks have done terribly since inflation picked up. With high rates and therefore high costs of capital, renewables projects "with the promise of zero-to-no OpEx" are facing CapEx rates that are having companies and individuals pull out of renewables commitments one after the other.

HandsomeSloth Updated 

ENPH is facing headwinds from multiple directions. After a few years of sky high valuations, it is being looked at with fundamentals. Current PE of 30, so we could reasonably fall to a PE of 20 if the broader market crashes or if the CleanTech bubble (continues to) pop. Either 10% down from here ~$108 or 50% down from here ~$59 are plausible IMO. I like what...

HandsomeSloth

LT support line drawn has been support since 1985. With over 35 years of support for the trend, I say buy the dips. Relatively easy stop loss below the trendline. If we break channel... LT trend change and CAUTION. If we don't break channel... happy days!

HandsomeSloth

RKLB has a summer-bubble and was finally able to break and stay above ~$5.25/share. This bubble was unfortunately a head and shoulders, which, after today's failed launch, saw acceleration to the downside. Now we're solidly in the middle of what I hope is a new, large descending wedge. Hopefully we see bottoming out around $4/share or even $3.50/share again. To...

HandsomeSloth

We've had a lot of symmetry forming this long-term cup. Hopefully it becomes a cup and handle and we're all happy. Bulls enjoy euphoria of long-term ~to the moon~ mentality on the back end, and Michael Burry exits his short at the bottom of the handle ($340-360?). Once we double top at $400 and complete the cup, we can get back to our long-term trendlines of...

HandsomeSloth

Since 1986, NEE has had a very stable long-term resistance line. In 2019, we broke bullish above this line and have enjoyed "renewable energy euphoria" since then. However, we have: (1) VERY CLEAN symmetric round topping going on (2) We are re-testing and BREAKING BELOW the long-term resistance line. Perhaps we will re-test and call it support (3) Since...