HandsomeSloth

HandsomeSloth

See chart for some key levels: Support at 46 Support at 70 Resistance at 113 High at 190

HandsomeSloth

Watching this symmetric wave pattern forming on QQQ. We're effectively at support now in this 2022 channel. If we bounce here and trust the pattern, we could see a high of $290 on ~23 January, 2023. This could logically follow a Santa Rally and would be a similar start to 2023 as we had to 2022. Reasons for possible Santa Rally: History says Santa Rally's are...

HandsomeSloth

We just had a huge bull run, and hopefully it continues. This is a solid HOLD in my opinion (or you could trim some gains). Buy back in or increase position when PE <18.

HandsomeSloth

SPACs are out of favor. I expect they'll continue to be a source of funds for many investors as FAANG and QQQ sell off further. However, we are establishing some support >$3.53-3.80/share. If this truly is the bottom, the upside could still be massive. Rocket Lab is going to the moon (the real one): Their launch cadence is increasing (see chart) Their...

HandsomeSloth

Huge gains and huge losses possible here. 2018-2022 we had almost 2 full years of whiplash between these values before the COVID BUBBLE sent us higher. Are we back and ready to bounce around here? Huge swing trade potential if this proves itself out.

HandsomeSloth

IWM vs QQQ shown that QQQ has outperformed IWM relentlessly, but in the next few months or years--especially as FAANG is now dead--the Small Cap stocks of IWM might be poised to make a comeback. Time will tell.

HandsomeSloth

Tons of touches on both upper and bottom side of channel (see chart). Resistance became support for last 2 years (e.g. the bubble), but we've broken it and are now touching support. If we break bearish here and the 14-year trend fails, it will truly signal the end of the era of mega-cap tech leadership (AAPL, MSFT, FB, GOOG, AMZN, NFLX). What do you think will happen?

HandsomeSloth

What happens when we evaluate "How Far Down Could We Go?" as a way to quantify my appetite for pain... Very simply, taking prior highs was support (which we bounced off of on the way up before breaking higher), we can see that some possible support areas for TSLA are: 17%, 42%, 67% down from where we are at today. Looking at a ~10x PS ratio and a 70X PE ratio...

HandsomeSloth

The trend starts in '98 before the dotcom crash, and at every crash since, AAPL has fallen ~30-60% to reach support at a trendline on the log chart. We're just over half way down to this line now from the highs. If a recession is coming, another 30% down to $100/share is where I'll be looking to buy back in (which is 40-45% off of the all-time-highs). This will...

HandsomeSloth

I've been following the retracement on a multi-year level for some time, but unfortunately it looks like we won't be able to look at 2016-2019 as our guide for what is happening: The trend from 2016-2019 was useful guidance but will not occur in the same way as prior: - 3 year bull market (2016-2018), 1 year bear (2019-2020 to COIVD low in March 2020) - Bounce...

HandsomeSloth

Pick your favorite timeframe, either a big YELLOW or a smaller PURPLE head and shoulders... Still at 20x PS and 60x PE, is it time for NVDA to pull in a bit?

HandsomeSloth

A simple parallel channel since the recession shows our COVID bounce may have gotten a bit overheated... But 20% down? That's arbitrary... yeah, basically. However it does seem to line up to roughly the midpoint of this long-term parallel channel. 20% down aldo brings us back into a ~nominal PE ratio for SPY. Will the rotation of sectors keep SPY high while...

HandsomeSloth

Since 2007, AAPL has held the same trendline as support (on log scale). In that same time period, AAPL has fallen 30-50% 6 times, and the LT support line has been tested 3 times. We are now ~40% above that trendline today. BUT APPLE IS SUCH A STRONG COMPANY?! Yeah, okay, but last time it was trading above a PE of 20x was back around 2007-2010. Clearly the...

HandsomeSloth

Since 2009, we've had a clean rising channel on QQQ log chart: - 3 touches on the bottom (the last one being the COVID low, breaking through the bottom slightly - 7 touches on the top, until we broke out of the channel bullish immediately post the COVID low - Since then we've back-tested the channel and remained bullish. In 2022, everything changed. The first few...

HandsomeSloth

Housing is back in the doghouse… But springtime is coming around! TREX is at ~$66 today, but if COVID is over, so then its PS and PE are too high: - PS: 6.34 vs 5.00 = 21% downside - PE: 36.542 vs 30.00 = 18% downside So, let’s call it 20% downside to go, so $66 --> $52.8 Targets are somewhat arbitrary, but I love directional accuracy and coincidences. 20%...

HandsomeSloth

SQ was absolutely a lead bull for the last 2 years since COVID hit. That’s over. I’m drawing 2 Fib Retracements here: 1) LEFT Looking at the left Fib since the COVID low, we have now retraced back down to the 0.786 line (~$83/share). That’s bearish if I ever saw a sign. Furthermore, we in the last few weeks bounced up to $149.00, below the 0.5 Fib from the...

HandsomeSloth

FOXF can be considered a COVID stock. They sell suspensions for mountain bikes and off-road vehicles. As with many other COVID stocks, FOXF is down ~50% from its high just a few months ago. When looked at with weekly candles since 2016 (7+ years!), we can draw 3 roughly parallel lines reflective of support for multiple years. We are just about to hitting the...

HandsomeSloth

Combatting factors at play here: Technicals = potential inverse head and shoulders... but we only made it just above the 0.382 fib Fundamentals = housing (and thus buying things from WSM for your new house) are having a bad time We should know in a few days which way this might trend. With now PS at 1.2 and PE at 9.5, and with both revenues and net income...