Hedge_Of_The_World

Hedge_Of_The_World

We're seeing a not so unexpected bounce in Treasuries, which could potetially see the 10Y yield back at the 1.50% level as early as today. Having said that, on the monthly timeframe, we're looking at an RSI of 53, so we still have room to run, potentially to the 2% - 2.25% level by EOM. Let's see how the cookie crumbles as bond bears potentially get ready to take...

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We're seeing a massive landslide of wins across the economic data spectrum this morning, with Retail Sales coming in hot at 9.8% vs the 5.3% expected, Retail Sales ex-auto coming in at 8.4% vs the 4.9% expected, jobless claims coming in at the lowest level since before the pandemic at 576k vs the 695k expected, and finally continuing claims came in at 3.73MM vs...

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With M2 up around 25% since last January, leading to higher equity inflows in the past 5 months, than in the past 12 years combined, price has become quite distorted. When you divide the indexes by M2, you'll notice that price action looks a lot more like it did pre QE days, when Fib retracements actually worked to indicate the strength of a "bounce". With the...

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SPY is within a few points of the 1.618 Fib (over) extension. Are we finally seeing the top on SPY? Who wants to buy at these levels? With QQQ forming a possible double top, RSI's of 70 - 80 across multiple timeframes and indexes, everything and the moon priced in, we can't be far from a correction now. The question is, what happens when dumb money gets trapped at...

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We've just seen another rocket parade over the past 2 weeks, like the one we saw back in November. But, as we kick-off Q1 earnings season, are we finally seeing the end of the insane post Covid crash rally? If we break out higher, the S&P could potentially breach the upper band of the ascending channel, leading to yet another round of short squeezes, and new...

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GME just lost it's 50DMA. The bulls really need to show up here soon to recapture the 144 level. The 100DMA is all the way down at 89, and believe me, if the bulls don't recapture the 50DMA this week, we're going to 89. Any buyers at 89?

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If the 100DMA breaks, it's all over. We're at critical support, and it has to hold, else the 200DMA comes into play at 9.10. If we see a notable bounce off broader earnings strength this week (positive ETF flows), we could be in for a profitable bounce of 10-15%...

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- Global stocks are flying high to start the week, and are testing ATH's on Tuesday morning. The MSM are all singing the same song of sunshine and rainbows, with recent Chinese, and US data, showing signs of continued strength. We all know the data is completely bogus, and is possibly the reason why over 18 million Americans are still on some form of income...

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- Welcome to the final trading day of Q1, folks! Futures were relatively flat in the overnight session ahead of Biden's long awaited Infrastructure announcement today, which should see a proposal in the realm of $2.25 Trillion tackle roads, bridges, and the EV market, among others. I have no idea why the Biden administration would raise taxes to pay for it, since...

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The real question is what happens when we hit 2%? Will the bond market (and stock market) implode? Will the Fed step in with YCC? Something tells me we won't have to wait much longer. Hold on to your hats in April, the 10Y note won't see real support until the 128 level (we're currenty trading around 131...

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The Nasdaq is toast...

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9:12AM - Market preview: - Yesterday's PA looked like a buy-back fueled spending fest, with corporations spending as much on buy-backs as they did pre-COVID. I guess somethings never change, or do they? The Ponzi appears to be alive and well (for now). Don't you just love it when individual investors have next to no control over PA? However, this morning, the S&P...

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Market preview: - After a comedic but painful day of PA on Friday, with the last few shorts in the market getting squeezed out of their positions (again), futures are showing some light weakness on Monday morning. Archegos Capital failed to meet a critical margin call last week, leading to billions in losses, and other stocks linked to the fund, such as Nomura,...

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We're sitting comfortably at the 21 day EMA, and finding support. What about the lower band of the flag? Are we expecting earnings to impress? Not a chance. So then what will hold up the price? I can't wait to find out...

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Having met our previous target of 92.50, then cooling off a bit in recent trade, we're seeing the dollar make a run for a potential new near term high. Our new target is the 200MA (M) around 95.25. If long ended yields catch intraday support off their 21 day EMA's, we could see another leg higher toward 2% on the 10Y yield, and the 2.5% level on the 30Y yield,...

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After a near 50% crash over just 5 days, GameStop (GME) is seeing heavy support at the 21 day EMA, and we're back at a 222 handle. My play here would be to exclusively short GME when we see the upper band of the flag tested near 300+. But, to be honest, with risk so incredibly sporadic, and flows (and price) essentially blurred by MM and Fed manipulation, I'm...

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After persistent rejections at the 21 day EMA, Tesla (TSLA) is back at the 100 day MA support around 657.31. Even if TSLA saw incredible flows, their cash burn on the aggressive (global) expansion is going to be hindered by tighter monetary conditions going forward. TSLA's bonds are incredibly important to it's viability/growth strategy, so we need to see a...

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AAPL is most certainly in a persistent downtrend, and after catching notable support near the 200 day MA recently, we're seeing resistance now at the 21 day EMA/100 day MA. With key supports broken, the only real support left for AAPL is the 200 day MA around 115.60. It would take a heavy risk off shift for a move of that magnitude to materialize, but imo it's...