HenriqueCentieiro

HenriqueCentieiro

Here's a short analysis of why the ETH price has been jumping. I don't think there's a huge upside on ETH, but I think there's a, say 75% probability of going to the $4,000 level (+28%) and a 60% probability of hitting the previous all-time high of $4,800 with a 56% upside. The price rose to over $3,000, which is a casual +22% gain in just a week. Let me start...

HenriqueCentieiro

Historically, no matter who wins the elections, Bitcoin wins: - Bitcoin’s supply capped at 21 million coins; - Immutable monetary policy; - While governments will continue to print money; - And expanding government debt; Volatility is only short-term. Here's why: Like Paul Tudor Jones said, "All roads lead to inflation". Cash will always lose money over time...

HenriqueCentieiro

MicroStrategy announced its plans to buy more Bitcoin: $42 billion worth of BTC. Why does it matter to us? After the purchase, over 3% of the Bitcoin supply will be held by a single company. Other companies are also adding BTC to their balance sheet. Countries are also doing it. BUT Bitcoin is scarce. So far, in total, NASDAQ:MSTR has invested $9.9B into...

HenriqueCentieiro

Bitcoin increased over 5% in 24 hours, triggering two bullish indicators: Descending Channel Breakout: BTC broke out of the channel, signaling a potential trend reversal. This breakout suggests that the previous downward trend might be ending, paving the way for upward movement. 200 MA Crossover: The price has crossed above the 200-day moving average, a key...

HenriqueCentieiro

Bitcoin and the crypto market in general have been surging over the last week. Bitcoin is now sitting at the $65,000 level, very close to breaking out from its descending channel. If this breakout occurs, the next resistance level to watch is $73,000. With market sentiment currently positive, the potential for upward momentum is strong. I would give it a...

HenriqueCentieiro

An increase in stablecoin market cap often signals more money entering the crypto space, indicating bullish sentiment as investors prepare to deploy capital. This increased liquidity can lead to smoother trading and attract more participants, potentially driving up Bitcoin's price. The chart clearly illustrates this relationship: • Blue line (USDT+USDC+DAI market...

HenriqueCentieiro

Fed expected to cut rates ~0.5% on Sept. 19 Short-term outlook: • Likely market correction before/during the event • "Sell the news" expected • Traders may capitalize on retail investors' optimism around the FED rate cut Why? Historical patterns show corrections often precede rate cuts. this time might be no exception. FED rate cut market dynamics: •...

HenriqueCentieiro

Solana ( CRYPTOCAP:SOL ) price is currently close to a strong support level. COINBASE:SOLUSD The $120-$125 support level was tested 7 times and SOL always rebounds. Will it bounce up this time? I think there's a high chance it does it the macroeconomics this month help. The numbers we need to pay attention to over the coming days are: Sept. 6:...

HenriqueCentieiro

Here's where I see Bitcoin going next. As the US elections and the FED rate cuts come closer, the macro conditions are getting ready for a Bitcoin breakout. Here's the explanation for the TA: Descending Channel: Bitcoin has been trading within a downward channel. However, there's potential for a bullish breakout if the price moves above the channel's...

HenriqueCentieiro

With the recent market dip, most indicators show an oversold to neutral range: Bollinger Bands: neutral CCI: oversold RSI: Neutral MACD: oversold Fear and Greed Index: fear In other words, the market does have room to grow, but it needs market drivers to do so. The FED rate decisions in September might just be the catalyst Bitcoin needs. If liquidity...

HenriqueCentieiro

Bitcoin has been trading on a descending channel pattern and might be close to a breakout. At this stage, BTC hits the resistance multiple times with increasing strength of price action (higher lows into resistance over the last month). Currently, the support/resistance levels are: $63k - GETTEX:64K $67 - $68k $71 - FWB:73K (corresponding to the all time...

HenriqueCentieiro

TVL - Total Value Locked - is an important indicator of the healthiness of on-chain activity. The chart shows the TVL adjusted by the native token for different chains. This allows us to track the TVL growth normalized by the price appreciation, isolating how much the TVL comes from net new inflows rather than price appreciation. When the TVL Growth Adjusted...

HenriqueCentieiro

According to my analysis, there’s a significant correlation between Google trends (the frequency of Google searches) and the price of Bitcoin. Coincidentally, lower volumes of Google searches signify quiet times in the market from the retail perspective. Since March 2024 there’s been a decline in Google searches for Bitcoin. This can be interpreted as a lower...

HenriqueCentieiro

The indicator in blue represents the Sharpe Ratio of a DCA strategy. In this case, as can be seen on the chart, the DCA Sharpe ratio is 6, while the "regular" Sharpe ratio is 3. This shows that Dollar Cost Averaging strategies can significantly improve risk-adjusted returns.

HenriqueCentieiro

We still have distortions from the monetary liquidity introduced during the pandemic. The bottom indicator is the 12-month rate of change. We can see an extreme expansion in M2 and subsequent contraction. On the other hand, we can see that the M2 line still shows a big stock of liquidity compared to the standard deviations. Each standard deviation on the chart...

HenriqueCentieiro

Government unemployment benefits might be the reason why over the last 40 years, the unemployment rates in Portugal and Spain have been higher than Hong Kong.

HenriqueCentieiro

In the chart, we can see that the active wallets can be a leading indicator for the price of a crypto. This is similar to Metcalfe's Law, which measures a network's value. The law shows that the value of a network grows exponentially as the number of its users increases. We can see that recently, the number of MKR addresses increased significantly but the price...

HenriqueCentieiro

Bitcoin is highly correlated with the M2 money supply. Saying this, when the correlation is negative, i.e., periods when BTC is declining but the M2 is increasing, it is usually a good time to accumulate BTC as the price will sooner or later catch up with its long-term correlation with the M2.