risk: Trump tax plan Japan election pro: Schumer: no deal on ACHA weak NFP -33K vs +80K expected risk aversion trade: North Korea missile, Catalonia independence claim technical: weekly candle close at long term resistance. overbought, Doji candle. sign of reversal.
Technical: Dollar tested long term support trendline. Fundamentals: -US rate hike and hawkish Feds talk this week. (except for Kashkari) -Trump fiscal policy ($1 trillion for infrastructure, Mexico border wall, TAX CUT!) -strong economic data (job, housing...) -although Trump failed with #AHCA because of Freedom caucus, I believe it's easier for him to make a...
Trump's tax plan after meeting with airline CEOs in 2-3 weeks. Trump-Abe meeting this weekend. (Japanese company creating job in US, Trump will go easy on Yen devaluation) UJ above 100-hour and 200-hour moving average. Trendline resistance turn support. Support level to watch: 100 4h-MA (~113.30), psych (113.00) Closing weekend gap from last week. TP1 115.00
Technical support level: Ppevious swing low 111.61 and 111.35 0.382 fib. (from pre-election low to post-election high) Fundamentals: US job market is improving? (Trump's tweet mania, proposed border tax, keeping jobs?) Trump's fiscal policy. Fed rate hike (~3) Bullish for dollar.
intraday short UJ. enter during the formation of wick. ~101.40 Daily candle will close below .236 fib (<101.00) Fail to break resistance. MA average is bearish.
No additional easing from BoJ. No rate cut. Doesn't met Yen bear expectations. Yen, safe-haven currency. US Fed expectations to hike in June. More hawkish statement. BUT Seasonal May is good for USD. Potential BoJ intervention.
Rate cut. More QE. Panic long EU. counter-fundamental.
0.236 fib support. Stoch RSI oversold. doji candle forming. daily: bullish candle formed. good US data on Friday.