We're approaching important crossroads at gold. After a major breakout gold is about to finish of cycle degree Wave 3 with an extended 5 sub-wave. Look for topping pattern and we're ready to start major correction that can last couple of months.
Gold is printing Wave 5 at the end. Some upside is still possible to finish off fifth waves but can be shorted from the lower high.
I'm predicting Flat pattern in the middle of bigger WXYZ correction. We have one more wave to complete smaller wave B of the predicted Flat ABC pattern. If so, sharp reversal should appear shortly and impulsive move down to attach recent swing lows.
Elliott Wave analysis presents another possibility for the medium term: we can be in complex correction for next 2 months printing WXYZ all the time. Bulls and bears will be strongly disappointed in this scenario. this scenario is very bullish. Once the correction ends, we can expect upside breakout.
- Gold is holding lower price but still no downside breakout - There are surely some trapped bulls trading off the daily chart: there were several good looking bull signal bars in recent weeks. - The 2150 price target is based on weekly chart - there are some bears trapped at this level.
- Wave 2 smaller degree is getting extended similar to previous correction - If price breaks previous swing lows impulsively, we can expect lower prices. - The risk reward is quite nice from here. Invalidation and stop loss is at 2388 - Move to the downside is supported by the fundamentals: Russia-Ukraine peace talks and stronger dollar
- The price of gold is still correcting for Wave 4. The assumption is that we're in a contracting diagonal. - The price can turn down but can also keep correcting for a while here - After the correction, take out of swing low is expected. This is the crucial place to distinguish between Bullish and Bearish scenario. If price turns sharply after breaking the low,...
Gold is extending correction for Wave 4. This breakout is just a beginning of a shakeout cause I'm expecting one more swing low. If we get swing low for wave 5 and then sharp reversal, it will be great time to go long.
- Gold created wave 1of3 during currently ongoing Wave C - Wave 2 is ongoing and with Wave 3of3 I'm expecting much lower prices. - This is my main scenario right now. - The key to differentiate between Bullish and Bearish scenario is to observe price behavior at next swing low. If price find a bid, we're in Bullish scenario, however if it keeps dropping we're in...
- Gold can move in similar fashion that during previous correction and create contracting diagonal to the downside and then build impulsive Wave 5. - For this scenario I expect one more swing low and then series of higher highs.
Go short Gold @2355 with Limit order SL: 2415 TP: 2995 Risk to Reward: 1:1 Win rate: 33% Profit factor: 3
This is another possibility: count that result in lower prices invalidation of this count is @2388.
Gold created impulsive upside breakout in a shape of Wave 1 Bearish count is invalid at this point Corrective Wave 2 is ongoing Going long at this correction is good strategy Stop Loss and invalidation @2314
I had to recount the legs down to fit the current pattern I assume we currently finished ABC Flat pattern as Wave 2 If the count is correct we're going down for Wave 3
Correction might be complete as Running Flat and we're in a starting phase of an impulsive wave up
- I'm waiting for Wave 3 of 3 Develop this week resulting in downside breakout - Gold was first metal to break down on 20th May but now is holding well among silver, copper and others - If the gold finally breaks down it can be a violent move, I want to be positioned for that - The price action tells me there is no upside risk unless price breaks swing lows and...
- Gold price corrected further and currently I'm seeing Running Flat completed for Wave 2 - This doesn't mean that we're going to see lower prices immediately. Wave 2 might be even more complex. However at this point being out of the market not advised. - The odds favor (much) lower prices if running flat is indeed what we have for wave 2. - I advice be short from here.
- If wave 2 is finished (it might not be cause it's very shorty), then we're going to fall steeply for wave 3 - If wave 2 is still ongoing, then there will be some sort of flat pattern and then gold will fall for wave 3 - The end of the month was week and we just had 2 consecutive weekly bearish bars. This increases the odds that we're going to see lower prices from here.