Supply glut and TA say down. Possible inverted head and shoulders may save a retest of lows. If so, expect a ~$66 target.
Long term technicals showing short signals on all cloud parameters Price below cloud Lagging span below price and cloud (almost) bearish kumo twist The problem with shorting at the current price is the 'C-Clamp formation' of tenkan and kijun which basically says that price needs to catch up with the equilibrium point or that equilibrium needs to catch up...
This is a 12H Bitfinex chart showing a potential reversal of bearish momentum with a weak Bullish TK cross under the cloud. We have had several Bullish TK crosses under the cloud since August 2014 with only one materializing into strong bull momentum (buy signal) above the cloud. Also of note, we seem to have firmly rejected the Kijun resistance around $232 and...
Here is a 6h OKC futures cloud chart. There is a potential long entry zone should LTC price not drop below the index. There is also a bullish kumo twist trying to print, should the uptrend continue. Should price breach the bottom of the cloud, there is a likelihood of price breaching the top of the cloud. I've labeled my resistance levels with probability of price...
This is the 4H cloud on OKC futures. I labeled the potential long entry based on Rob Booker's cloud method (for more see the Cloud and Exit post). Unfortunately, price broke out through the cloud before I had a chance to publish. I have labeled upcoming resistance levels with my arbitrary near term prediction. The current price levels at the time of this post had...
Another potential break up based on thin cloud resistance which ends at about 8AM EST. Bull targets would be $215/220/230.
This concept was taken from Rob Booker's Ichi Webinar www.youtube.com The idea is that if price enters the cloud, assume it will exit the cloud on the opposite side of the entry. I backtested this with the 30min time frame which is almost 100% accurate. Shorting if price enters from above the cloud, and going long when price enters from below the cloud. The exit...
We are approaching thin cloud resistance (not a kumo twist however) on or around 3/11/15 based on the 2D OKCoin chart. Likely levels of support and resistance are shown based on cloud levels and fibs. Based on confluence of the cloud levels (which are essentially fibs in and of themselves) and fibs, 2200 - 2280 yuan or $354.35 - 367.23 usd would be my most likely...
Cloud has had a great day on the 15 if you've placed your asks at the flat kumo. Best chance for break up coming soon due to thin cloud resistance.
Although weekly shows a possible inverted H+S forming, the Daily appears to show pretty clear H+S. Edit: This is not a reversal pattern as that occurs with an H+S develops in a bullish trend, this occurred in a bear trend. Thanks for the reminder @MoonTrader.
Long term outlook for possible inverse H+S forming on bitfinex. A kijun bounce is also nicely displayed when we touched 470. This suggests ~$395 by 1/11/15. Update 1/28/15:
Video here: youtu.be Entry as price pierces cloud. Price target 3500
First Bullish Kumo twist after long bear trend. The flat bottom of the cloud will attract price. Bearish cloud forming may indicate another bear trend after small uptrend. Other events which may have bullish sentiment: 11/28/14 Black Friday 12/01/14 Cyber Monday 12/04/14 50k btc auction