InTheMoneyAdam

InTheMoneyAdam Updated 

In 2023, I did a write up on TradingView about how there is a positive correlation between interest rates and equities, meaning that equites tend to decrease when interest rates decrease. However, correlation does not equal causation. The real correlation is between poor economic data and the stock market, where the poor economic data spurs interest rate cuts and...

InTheMoneyAdam Updated 

Oh, Robinhood. What happened to you? Once the staple of every retailer's trading boom and bust, now a lousy 4 star brokerage in the app store. People will call someone a shill for even thinking about you. You turned off the buy button at the climax of trading history, you bitch, and now you're paying the price. And that's exactly why I think HOOD is a good...

InTheMoneyAdam Updated 

Already long a 266.67 3/15/24 put that is near its breakeven of 228.12. Profit so far is about $500. I expect NASDAQ:TSLA to go down to $210. Why? Small head and shoulders, trading under 9 EMA, hype over Cybertruck dying out as peoples' hopes face reality, MACD crossover, rejected high of the channel its been trading in, and there's pretty decent historical...

InTheMoneyAdam Updated 

Besides the macro-economic outlook I've described in other ideas, which really are the foundation of equity moves right now, SPY is showing both a cup-and-handle and broadening downward wedge, both of which are bullish indications from a technical perspective. It's palpable that sentiment has changed across social media, and it makes sense that a bear market...

InTheMoneyAdam Updated 

When you're well, sometimes it is difficult to imagine things suddenly taking a turn for the worse. 1.5 years ago, I was as healthy as could be. I thought medical problems were for other people, my checkups always came up roses. Then I fell ill with an autoimmune neurologic condition, likely autoimmune encephalitis, and I wish I had opened a Health Saving's...

InTheMoneyAdam

Likely rally into 2023, spurred by downward trend in inflation. Likely 25bp hike at next meeting, then full stop to evaluate the damage (and give time for lagging economic data to catch up to policy changes). Unemployment will rise, possibly some deflation, and fed will cut rates towards the end of 2023 in response to negative economic data. This will cause a...

03:16

InTheMoneyAdam

Using a pretty simple formula involving CPI , we can adjust the stock chart to show real returns instead of nominal returns. Real returns represent a more accurate picture of the return of the stock over time. In addition, we can easily adjust returns for dividends and estimated taxes.

07:55

InTheMoneyAdam Updated 

With inflationary expectations low, a decrease in CPI and Core CPI, a likely slowing in interest rate hikes, there's too much positive news in the short term to ignore the likelihood of a near-term rally. Still, some hinges on Jerome Powell's outlook tomorrow, but I expect him to keep language as soft as his last speech. Last month, he was still very domineering...

05:26

InTheMoneyAdam Updated 

As long as inflationary expectations remained low after Jerome's last speech where he spoke about softening the increase in interest rates, which may or may not be the case, there is a good chance that inflation ticks down. This would confirm a 50bp hike for December, easing monetary policy and providing room for equities to continue their rally. While I think a...

InTheMoneyAdam Updated 

I have heard both sides: 1) Historically, the Fed pivot will result in a decline in equities because they are pivoting in response to negative economic data which drags on equities, and 2) this time is different, negative economic data is positive for equites because it means inflation is on its way down. When people reference the former, for whatever reason,...