the first time ive bothered shorting this rally. i think its time, diverging from other indices and showing some good weakness.
seemingly every big bear has flipped into ultra bull mode. I hope they enjoy the ride down.
getting long vix for the first time in a while, dont trade it often because its spreads are wide and the interest rate over night is high. But this is true capitulation, this market has entered mania territory. absolute mania. Buy equities because "muh ai dog pictures" at your own peril.
Massive extremes on the PMARP. being a bit pre-emptive on this short since theres been no confirmation, only slowing momentum on the short timeframes. Large speculators are the most long sugar since august 2021, so its getting pretty crowded. Similair fundamentals to this as coffee, only more extreme on the COT side.
Big earnings beat. Followed by a dump, same action on the Nasdaq. Good news followed by a dump is a good indication of exhaustion. Got short nasdaq.
COT data shows that people are now net long £ for the first time in a while. Everyone and their mother (literally) is blabbing on about De-Dollarization. Idk if theres merit to the idea but who cares, these people are usually wrong when it comes to direction. Its unlikely to be this extreme of a drop, will keep this post up to date.
KC is hitting some fibs and speculators have been getting heavily long over the past 3 weeks as per COT data. PMARP showing a good sign of over exuberance. From what I can tell the consensus on it is that there's a big shortage and it cant go down, which is common across a few other commodities at the moment (CL etc). Consensus is rarely correct. Much of the...
Held an important 618 during an absolutely horrific move on the nasdaq. stoch upcurved. Had a whole short idea based on the fact that the Nasdaq hadn't moved down much, and that when it did move down BTC would fall of a cliff. This isn't the case. While I'm not a mid term bull, getting short here is incredibly stupid.
The PMARP didnt even get this over extended during the may 2021 blow off top. Very much a sign of this being a bear market rally. This reading is showing on almost all of the daily time frames.
Bearish harmonic. the VIX is at an inflection point and the ES looks like shit. Lots of hype around Ethereum at the moment, mostly fuelled by false hopes that will be shattered upon or even before the merge, there's this idea that eth2 will somehow make the ETH chain somewhat useable, and not just some whale and dex arbing chain. I'm not sure where it came from,...
Looks quite bad. Already explained my bearish bias in another post.
Its been a while since we got to these levels on the Stochastic RSI for the VIX. It is possible that we get a fast rally that's quickly faded on the Sunday futures open. But its not worth betting on. I don't know geopolitics but the chances of this Taiwan shit escalating is significantly higher than it would have been say 10 years ago. America is losing its...
toxic financing? something is off... this is the type of relative strength that is so bad its just shocking
thats the bottom !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Looking for it to come down to the 27.2 over the weekend, then a sharp recovery late sunday at the futures open.
Looks pretty clean, im bearish on commodities in general because theres gonna be not just a decline in inflation... but deflation too!
Looks, holding important levels on this consolidation and looks like accumulation. Theres other reasons i have but i dont wanna get banned from trading view. >:3.