In this analysis , I would like to point out the overall Put/Call ratio. We have seen time & time again when overall market participates are leveraged heavily into one side , the market always seems to turn rather quickly or consolidates before making its next move.
I would also like to point out the recent extreme bearish sentiment regarding the...
Time and time again we have seen positive and negative divergences between the AMEX:SPY and AMEX:GOVT .
Will This Time Be Different?
We have a negative Divergence between the two yet again.
This suggest the bottom is NOT in.
A . - Price has visited the $153-154 price level a total of 7 times and each time has respected and produced a bounce off of it sooner or later.
B . - Rejection of the 50 MA is a good sign for the bears , coming down and testing this level an 8th time is very probable.
C . - Being the 8TH time we retest , in this BEAR market I believe a break below this...
Bullish Scenario
- We open test the 50 Period Moving Average , Break through it and come up and test prior structure / 10 Period Moving Average
Bearish Scenario
- We open, test the 50 Period Moving Average , get rejection and continue to be BEARISH
A. When the VIX moves 20% (or more in a single trading day) ABOVE its 20 Period Moving Average this often signals a short term bottom in the market.
B. Confluence - We have a gap to fill furthering the probability of this short term bounce in the markets.
Remember we trade price action .
Just a possibility , we trade price ACTION
(A)-Bounce off the 50 MA
(B)-Smack back into our trend line/resistance
(C)-Smack into our trendline / support
In my opinion, with the state of the world economy, It is impossible for me to be BULLISH, so I do anticipate a much needed sell off.
If we can break above 150.66 and then break above 152 we can see more upside , although very unlikely . If we get rejected at either of these levels Ill be playing the downside. $$
With the Travy Patty Burger being eradicated off the menu we could see a sharp decline in sales this coming week or two, major loss for the McDonalds Corp. loosing the travy patty.
