JB7oh2

JB7oh2

New month new block out. This April we are starting off hot we have had positive Q4 & Q1 for SPX/SPY this has everyone thinking we are starting a bull market while everyone is bearish. Me personally I’m thinking the 2nd week of April should start a pullback and get to the range bound area. We have CPI and FOMC on the same day. Also the fight against the dollar...

JB7oh2

One of the things I look at is used car prices it was the first thing to take off when inflation started, it seems like prices are going back up. Inflation is sticky af right now and auto loan delinquency is making new highs. Credit card use is through the roof, people are broke but still have jobs for now. Banks are still not even close to being out of the woods....

JB7oh2

All times are Wall Street Monday- FED governor Jefferson speaks 2pm, as of late Monday has no big schedule news. So more bank news Tuesday- retail inventories ex auto, goods trade balance both at 8:30am, conference board (CB) consumer confidence 10am Wednesday- pending home sales 10am, crude oil inventories 10:30am Thursday- GDP (QoQ) Q4 8:30am, initial jobless...

JB7oh2

The market thinks rates are going to be cut this year and shouldn’t go up anymore but the feds keep raising rates this is the confusion going on. Since November we have been in a 10% range like I said before we will be stuck range bound for a long time which is fine for us but really bad for businesses. The fed rate at 4.75% is now higher than the PCE at 4.71% ...

JB7oh2

Two speeches at the same time wtf who planned this. Powell was boring he said no cuts and things will get bumpy the usual. Yellen says “not considering broad increase in deposit insurance” bam sell off at the end of the day it was like yin Yang today totally opposite of each other’s speeches. Powell says they are insuring Yellen says they are not, no protection...

JB7oh2

Most likely we will get a 25 point rate hike but the speech is where the money will be waiting. How to play it. First off the IV will be high for options so be ready for that, second have your personal profit margin in mind be real with yourself. Set the buy order as price will be moving fast I recommend using money you are willing to lose 100% if you put in a...

JB7oh2

Everyone loaded on puts but the market pushes higher. This is how bear markets end an unforeseen catalyst that is obvious in hindsight forcing market participants to acknowledge what’s been right in front of them. Now we have 2 inside bars on the daily chart everyone is trapped so don’t feel bad. But there’s going to be a violent move up or down as we all wait for...

JB7oh2

All times are Wall Street Monday- no schedule events just more bank talk luckily Tuesday- existing home sales 10am Wednesday- crude oil inventories 10:30am, FOMC rate drop at 2pm FOMC press conference at 2:30pm Thursday-building permits 8am, initial jobless claims 8:30am, new home sales 10am Friday- core durable goods orders 8:30am, FOMC member Bullard speaks...

JB7oh2

Looks like QT is over and QE begins immediately when the rich need handouts if this doesn’t show how rigged it is I don’t know what does. I had a feeling this would happen that’s why I said yesterday 396 they will not hesitate to bail each other out. All this on the 1 year anniversary of the first rate hike from the feds all eyes on next week’s FOMC will they...

JB7oh2

These banks are messing up the market as we have witnessed in the last week. Was it the tech bros creating a bank run to force the feds to chill out? Either way there will be more to fail in the near future as big banks buy them up. Weird stuff going on around the world the panic of a 2008 is setting in. But in the meantime traders trade and people are ready to...

JB7oh2

Last week we were at neutral now we are at extreme fear on the index, things move fast in this business. Tomorrow we have the long awaited CPI but nobody seems to remember with all the crazy bank news. Spy held pretty nicely given all the turmoil, lots of rumors of no rate hike this month. We might just chop around in this area until next week the market hates...

JB7oh2 Updated 

All times Wall Street time Monday- nothing but FDIC bank talk all day Tuesday- OPEC monthly report 7am, CPI 8:30am, FOMC member Bowman is somehow speaking during the blackout period at 5:20pm this is unheard of really strange Wednesday- retail sales MoM, PPI MoM both at 8:30am, crude oil inventories 10:30am Thursday- Philadelphia fed manufacturing index...

JB7oh2

What a day we hit the 401 as the arrow showed yesterday then sell off after the SIVB Silicon Valley bank went offline, makes it hard to have a bank run when there’s no bank right. The big short Michael Burry says we found our Enron I believe he’s on to something with that. Then the budget comes out from Biden which added more fuel to a fire this dude is going hard...

JB7oh2

Amazing jobs report today show the economy is strong job vacancies JOLTs report 10.8 million openings. The popcorn went cold today these people are more interested in digital currency than anything else. If it wasn’t for the feds balance sheet we would be in a bull market right now since they used it to inflate asset markets at the start of the pandemic raising...

JB7oh2 Updated 

Powell raises expectations for rates going higher is he overreacting we shall see how bad they F this up at the cost of the American workers. If you have been following me for some time you know how I feel about this. It’s weird some still believe in a soft landing, after today those people need to pull their heads out of the sand. Neither side held back which led...

JB7oh2

Finally today we get a pullback from this freeway we’ve been riding for 2 days but mainly it’s a cautionary reaction since Powell will be testifying in front of Congress tomorrow. Normally this would not effect the market but as we all know for the past year it has become a FED market also his statement is released before he talks on Tuesday, Wednesday he will be...

JB7oh2

Lots of volatility this week mainly starting Tuesday at 10am Wall Street time so let’s dive in day by day. Just so you know the reason I post this every Sunday is because these are events that impact your trade they impact the market because we have no idea what the market will do but we know that at this time on this day we should have a advantage. Monday=...

JB7oh2

Looks like all day the market was waiting for Bostic to talk, a non voting member pumped the market. This is why I’ve been bullish there are so many reasons to be bearish but we only need one thing to spark a rally, I know it’s weird or dumb but people want hopium when everyone is so doom and gloom. Tomorrow we have a busy day of data during market hours starting...