JB7oh2

JB7oh2 Updated 

Todays speech from Powell was pretty weird he seemed like he doesn’t give af anymore. We need to stay tuned to the other FED members and wait 3 weeks for the minutes to come out. Tomorrow we have initial jobless claims and nonfarm productivity QoQ this should help with direction going into Friday. The wall bulls need to get over is 415 today we had some short...

JB7oh2

Alrighty then the moment we’ve all been waiting for is here, FOMC is in effect tomorrow afternoon. Today was perfect up trend to set up tomorrow’s big event. The guy from the big short tweeted “SELL” the dude Cramer said “BUY” but who cares nobodies can predict the future. All I know is I’ve gone over how to play these FOMC days and I hope everyone knows what to...

JB7oh2 Updated 

Well today was just like I said in yesterday’s write up, risk off profit taking day. Again the year of confusion, remember that you’re not the only one that doesn’t know what to do with the data coming out. Tomorrow should be a rebound day if the Employment Cost Index QoQ which is the measurement of business price and the government pay for civilian labor. Last...

JB7oh2

Here we go again another action packed week ahead, earnings continue with 69% of the S&P reporting already surprised upside and the long awaited FOMC on Wednesday. As for tomorrow I’m expecting some selling off we have been ripping for a minute it only makes sense to take some profits before FOMC. So as long as 400 holds bulls stay in control even with a little...

JB7oh2

This is the most anticipated recession ever, the word is 2nd quarter the white collar recession, supposedly it’s already priced in lol. People are losing their jobs quicker than ever in these earnings calls. We went from 2 openings for 1 person to now you’re just part of the fed process have a nice day F off. It’s a good thing if you’re reading this you are...

JB7oh2

Algos bought up the dip today at 394 strong af or maybe it was the bank of Canada that said they are expecting to hold rates steady, it did go up when that news dropped. Either way risk management is important with this market that wants to start a bull market and bears are losing ground now with 3 days of closing at 400. Tomorrow we have a data drop that could...

JB7oh2

The 3rd week of January is normally the start of profit taking, so if you’re long be careful out there remember sell into strength. This could be a bull trap, tomorrow’s close is very important if we end the day above the trend line it will show a lot of strength and the risk on buyers will step in. This week is slow on news nothing really happens till Thursday...

JB7oh2

Today was interesting to say the least. We broke down the raising wedge but not from the PPI numbers it came from the FEDS talking hawkish and being adamant about keeping rates high all year with no cuts in sight. They have been saying this all year but the market has been high on hopium that they would pivot by November. There’s no way! What does this mean well...

JB7oh2

Today was a boring day after the 400 touch seems like the rally maybe losing steam or is it taking a break? Tomorrow’s PPI will probably mean more than it has before since it is a leading indicator for CPI, PPI is a true measure of output that is not affected by consumer demand. Other than that it’s just a bunch of talking heads from the feds since next week they...

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JB7oh2

just going over the 2yr VS the fed rate and what to expect this year. I think I need to write down my speech first I tell you what talking to yourself is not that easy. Have a great weekend

JB7oh2

So you hear me talk about yields and bonds and the dollar as far as keeping an eye on it. In this chart you see spy in my normal colored bars and the 10 year yield in the faded bars also hidden is DXY. I want all new traders to save this chart for following where we are going. As you see when the 10yr goes up SPY goes down and when the yield goes down spy or Spx...

JB7oh2

A little something for everyone you have cup and handles you got raising wedges you have 200 day moving averages. We haven’t seen this much excitement in awhile. The massive trend line is all I’m watching, can we break it for more than 2 days that will send buy signals. VIX is at 19 everything is pointing to a bull run how high can we go. Keeping it short working...

JB7oh2

Seems like every CPI is getting more popular then ever, it’s only the month of December. But we play what they push so with inflation still in 6% territory it’s still not good obviously. We have rallied 12 dollars in the last 5 days looks like the cpi play has been played the only news really was employment and it wasn’t that good anyway. Also a ton of if 6.6...

JB7oh2

Going into CPI on Thursday everyone seems bullish, you know what that means. Max pain. The only reason CPI # has come down is because of housing and used cars which are 3 months lagging or so, prices are still high at the grocery stores look at what’s happening with eggs of all things. We might get a low number but February seems like it will have a surprise in...

JB7oh2

I’ve been talking to traders and one thing is for sure “confusion” when will it make the move. Who knows but todays rejection at 393.70 shows that people were cashing out of the casino. The market continues to be a scalpers and day trader market. If you like a stock dollar cost average in or percentage average in and hold. Tomorrow Powell is talking early in the...

JB7oh2

The feds came out and said no cuts for 2023 of course we knew that but a lot of rumors have been telling people that a pivot is good for the market. The day they pivot “cut rates” the stock market will crash because it means something is broken. So now we have to price in the February and March hikes of 25 bps each. Also the pricing in for a recession deep or...

JB7oh2

First day of trading this year looked a lot like last year something’s don’t change overnight. Tomorrow we have FOMC minutes at 2 Wall Street time let’s see if this gives us a direction. I think we break out of the pennant and into a falling wedge. Today a bought some end of the month puts I’m trying to swing a little more this year. Not much to talk about on this...

JB7oh2

Here’s to a new year of trading we’ve all heard if you made through 2022 you can make through anything, yeah right. The most important thing is risk management stepping back and remember that we can have everything go right and still lose money. So with that said I’m expecting some a short covering squeeze in the first week of trading followed by a risk off month...