JCore7

JCore7

If it is, this is a possible roadmap ahead. which is still pretty bullish - a 3 million dollar Bitcoin is pretty bullish. But it still looks like it's weathered the spending frenzy of hitting 100k at Christmas, with any profit taking having a negligible impact on price, for the time being, and it's got more to go on this run.

JCore7

This looks right on a certain line in the sand, with the higher targets at 65 and above. The monthly close will be interesting and using a simple pair of moving averages, it still looks like a continuation to the upside is more likely than a trend change. But it's very close - it needs to get above this horizontal resistance level with a favourable monthly close.

JCore7

I decided the lower level shown in the 89s there is my threshold for considering a 4th in progress being more or less out of the question. As long as it stays above there, I think a 4th in progress is possible.

JCore7

If it's assumed that Bitcoin is going to back test some prior highs from here, then it's of note that the halfway back is close to the end of intermediate 3, which seems a fair candidate for such a test. Of course it's by no means a done deal that minute degree 5 is complete, but if it were, this might be a count in play, implying an extended intermediate 5th. All...

JCore7

This is just to shoutout the mighty pitchfork. It's a great tool on the shelf. Somewhat subjective use at times but it's a good trend predictor. Failure to hit the median line (yellow) sets up a move in the opposite direction. This median line is quite well reached and the trend is well intact. The rsi has until about the low 80s before it stops diverging but...

JCore7

Not for me. I'd need to see a substantial drop of around 20-25% to begin with before I expected a deeper sell-off. Just looking at the wave formation here says it still looks like 4th of the 5th is the most likely place in the count. Even what might be scary looking spikes down are bought up quite strongly, at least for now. A decent move down in the weekly...

JCore7

Here's one of the alternative interpretations I mentioned before that would take equality from the 23.6% retracement of submicro wave 3 (23.6% is a common fib level for a wave 4), finding the upper target levels I had previously charted. The 1st of the 3rd isn't ideal, but it still works nonetheless. Otherwise, a less likely series of 1-2s could result in a...

JCore7

Maybe, and there are a few indications to think about here from an EW perspective, but also a few ways to count this intermediate degree 5th wave. Working back from the triangle 4th, what seems to look right is this interpretation here, labelled as submicro degree. The 2-4 trendline of an impulse gives us the main indicator of whether or not the pattern is still...

JCore7

Just want to make a small adjustment to my upper targets from what I had said on my July 26th chart of around 125k, to take it a little above that to around 135k, somewhere around there. The base channel of wave 5 is significant all the way back to the early days, and seems to show the lower boundary of the bottom of each macro sell off. Whether that holds on...

JCore7 Updated 

This interpretation shows a completed triangle that would imply a return to the 5th wave advance after this break. Previous targets of around 125-135k are still anticipated for the end of a 5th. Since triangles often come in 4th waves, this could possibly be the 4th of the 1st of the 5th, if the macro level 5th is going to extend. However, oscillators on the...

JCore7

Diminishing volume, actionary wave length, and converging trendlines here appear to be setting up for a minor dump. The ending diagonal that plays out is a good quick fire trade that can have great risk/reward, with an entry point close to the invalidation (100% of wave 3), and the stop loss just beyond. Taking this would require calibrating to the exact prices...

JCore7

One of the best ways to simplify the Elliott wave method is by using the channel guidelines. Here we can see the corrective channel on the initial pull back from its top has been broken significantly to the downside. This indicates that it is an impulse wave, rather than any corrective pattern. In other words, the advance at this degree is complete and it's now in...

JCore7

The unconvincing structure of this correction overall has me wondering if it's not going to decline in 5 to make a flat. It's definitely possible. As shown with the channel slope, it's clearly a sideways pattern, but the current advance is unconvincing as the start of a 5th wave, or return to the larger degree upwards trend, certainly from an Elliott view. It...

JCore7

Here's one of the main Elliott founded reasons that lead me to think the 4th will require another low to complete. The corrective channel was originally set from the top, plus the next 2 significant pivots (highlighted by the red arrows), which provide the slope and range of the correction. The blue channel is a clone of that, and seems to capture the angle of...

JCore7

I've left my current analysis here for consistency across charts but want to highlight the approach towards both the lower parallel of the temp channel and the upper parallel of the corrective channel which could serve as resistance. The grey dashed horizontal resistance line that was broken yesterday will likely give an idea of whether or not any pullback is...

JCore7

Let me just pre-empt the possibility of that not being the 3 high, but in fact the end of the advance. These Elliott channels show the way, so it doesn't look like it's finished until the yellow channel is taken out. Often, that could be with a break below before retesting it and being rejected by the lower parallel similar to the arrows. All of these lines...

JCore7

I don't think so, but I could be wrong. I've left some thoughts and projections on the chart using the polyline. Maybe the last sell volume dump was the final flush out though so that makes me wonder - ultimately that's what this is, a guessing game, so this is my best guess.

JCore7

I remain a Bitcoin bull on this run up. For me, Bitcoin dips are always shake outs.