JWagnerFXTrader

JWagnerFXTrader

Earlier today, DJI pushed to a high that overlapped the previous low (see yellow rectangle). That overlap eliminates the rally as being wave 4 of a bearish impulse. That overlap does not eliminate lower levels, but does restrict how the count can be made. One possibility is that DJI is unloading in a wave 3 lower and today's rally was simply wave (ii) of 3. In...

JWagnerFXTrader

The Elliott Wave analysis for gold is bullish on the recent move above $1800. This price movement suggests the crash low on August 8 was a 'C' wave. A new wave higher has begun that will most likely terminate above $1920. So far, gold is building a nice impulsive wave. Prices may scoot straight up to $1920 OR pause first around $1840 before extending its run...

JWagnerFXTrader

GBPUSD looks ripe for a turn higher. We've been anticipating for a few weeks a dip in the latter portion of a 4th wave. Now, the dip has come. The bullish outlook for Cable (GBPUSD) is based on prices holding above 1.3483. A print below 1.3483 will create a need to go back to the drawing board for the Elliott wave picture of this market. There are 2 main...

JWagnerFXTrader

One of the benefits of Elliott wave is that it provides context for describing market behavior. A correct interpretation of the Elliott wave pattern can help you forecast important turning points. With these turning points identified, solid risk to reward ratio opportunities can be bubbled up as well. We have such a case within USDJPY. The choppy and...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

The Ichimoku cloud is a tool to help identify hidden levels of support and resistance. During strong trends, the cloud will hold up prices in an uptrend and hold down prices in a correction. For bitcoin, notice how the cloud held prices up right before the price collapsed. Now, the cloud is acting like overhead resistance. Breaking above the cloud high of...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

This dip in GBPUSD brought the fx pair down to the top of a 14-year broken resistance trendline in an anticipated wave ((iv)). Based on this move alone, it would be extremely bullish pointing to significantly higher pricing. It is possible the fourth wave is over and GBPUSD will accelerate higher in a 5th wave. 1.44 are minimum and immediate targets with much...

JWagnerFXTrader

Silver's current Elliott wave pattern appears to be a triangle. Triangle's unfold in 5 waves and silver's triangle is near the end of the 5th wave. Prices may dip to $24.75 where a couple wave relationships exist. Silver does not have to dip and this would not be a tradeable move lower. Parallel waves in the triangle tend to have 61.8% or 78.6% distance...

JWagnerFXTrader

ETHBTC overshot the target we outlined a few weeks back. This recent uptrend looks like an extended 5th of a 5th. I do believe ETH will outperform over the long run, but this chart has me leaning towards BTC outperformance initially. The 618 retracement near .043 would be a reasonable retracement such that if ETHBTC made it that low, a good value play could be...

JWagnerFXTrader

2 Simple items to point out on this chart. First, at today's low, Bitcoin was the closest it has come to its 200 day Simple Moving Average since the halving last May 2020. At today's low, bitcoin was a mere 5% higher than the moving average. In a bull trend, the 200 SMA is considered longer-term support. The 200 SMA is near $39-40k now. Secondly, there is a...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Bitcoin has hit some turbulence recently, but the price chart is firmly planted to the bullish side. First, price is contained within this upward sloping price channel. The support line of this price channel arrives near $49,400 Secondly, the daily Ichimoku Cloud is supporting pricing. A more conservative approach using Ichimoku is waiting for the lagging line...

JWagnerFXTrader

From the April 23 low, USDJPY appears to have hammered out an Elliott Wave impulse higher. This suggests that after a temporary dip, USDJPY is highly likely to resume this trend higher. Harmonic analysis suggests the floor is in for USDJPY or may be found with one more small dip. The key level is the April 23 low of 107.47. The meat of the trend would carry to...

JWagnerFXTrader

ETH found support at the 61.8% retracement of the previous uptrend. The previous uptrend can be counted as an impulse wave. This suggests that ETH may continue to motor higher above .046 possibly to .06. Performing some simple math...IF BTC holds at 60k, then .06 ETH/BTC rate implies $3,600 ETHUSD. With crypto solidly in an uptrend, this pattern suggests...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

For the month of March, bitcoin has been carving out this upward sloping price channel. The recent price action for bitcoin suggests a retest of the support trend line is coming. How prices behave from this support trend line will say a lot about the digital asset. Prices meaningfully bounce at support (green arrow) - under this scenario, bitcoin likely...

JWagnerFXTrader

Bitcoin's little brother Ethereum has found some support. Analyzing ETH priced in BTC allows us to see which trend may be stronger. If ETHBTC is rising, then ETH is getting stronger than BTC. This could be the result of: If BTC is in an uptrend, then ETH is in a strong uptrend If BTC is in a downtrend, then ETH's downtrend is not as strong OR ETH is in an...

JWagnerFXTrader

I can count a completed bullish impulse wave for NZDUSD. This implies a correction lower to at least .66 and possibly lower levels. The structure of the decline will help us determine if Kiwi falls further to 61.8% retracement or whether the 38.2% retracement holds.

JWagnerFXTrader

Looking at EURJPY, it appears the advance from the May 2020 low is wave D of a triangle in Elliott Wave terms. Zooming in, this wave D would be more than half way there. Measuring out the harmonics, its appears a reaction may take place in the 132-134 price zone if EURJPY makes it that high. This doesn't mean that prices HAVE to make it to this zone or that...

JWagnerFXTrader

Nasdaq (NDX) is at an interesting spot on the chart. From an Elliott wave perspective, a bearish and bullish count can be identified. The near term movements in NDX may eliminate one of the counts leaving us with a preferred Elliott wave count and forecast. The green count and arrow reflects a bullish wave structure to implies a retest of new highs. Some wave...

JWagnerFXTrader

Though silver prices have rallied, the longer-term trend is pointed lower. Using Elliott Wave Theory as our guide, silver has been declining in impulse waves and rallying in corrective waves. Silver may be in a small degree wave ii higher. There are wave relationships and the underside of the purple price channel hovering near $27. We'll likely see some type...