JWagnerFXTrader

JWagnerFXTrader

Bitcoin's little brother Ethereum has found some support. Analyzing ETH priced in BTC allows us to see which trend may be stronger. If ETHBTC is rising, then ETH is getting stronger than BTC. This could be the result of: If BTC is in an uptrend, then ETH is in a strong uptrend If BTC is in a downtrend, then ETH's downtrend is not as strong OR ETH is in an...

JWagnerFXTrader

I can count a completed bullish impulse wave for NZDUSD. This implies a correction lower to at least .66 and possibly lower levels. The structure of the decline will help us determine if Kiwi falls further to 61.8% retracement or whether the 38.2% retracement holds.

JWagnerFXTrader

Looking at EURJPY, it appears the advance from the May 2020 low is wave D of a triangle in Elliott Wave terms. Zooming in, this wave D would be more than half way there. Measuring out the harmonics, its appears a reaction may take place in the 132-134 price zone if EURJPY makes it that high. This doesn't mean that prices HAVE to make it to this zone or that...

JWagnerFXTrader

Nasdaq (NDX) is at an interesting spot on the chart. From an Elliott wave perspective, a bearish and bullish count can be identified. The near term movements in NDX may eliminate one of the counts leaving us with a preferred Elliott wave count and forecast. The green count and arrow reflects a bullish wave structure to implies a retest of new highs. Some wave...

JWagnerFXTrader

Though silver prices have rallied, the longer-term trend is pointed lower. Using Elliott Wave Theory as our guide, silver has been declining in impulse waves and rallying in corrective waves. Silver may be in a small degree wave ii higher. There are wave relationships and the underside of the purple price channel hovering near $27. We'll likely see some type...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Using Elliott Wave as our guide, EURUSD appears to be entering the belly of the down trend and correction. There are wave relationships near the current price so a bounce may develop. As we are in a bearish impulse wave pattern, if this bounce develops, I am looking at the bounce as being wave iv of (iii). I anticipate the bounce will be shallow and EURUSD...

JWagnerFXTrader

Using Elliott Wave Theory as our guide, the recent weakness in GBPUSD is pushing it below the (ii)-(iv) support trend line. This is a bearish symptom that suggests a near term top has carved. Additionally, a wedge of this nature appears to be an ending diagonal. Ending diagonal's tend to fully retrace which means this market is ripe for a correction back to...

JWagnerFXTrader

This trendline in SP500 would be a cause to pause before getting bulled up. A test of the underside of the line seems appropriate. Good news for bulls is that the Jan 26-29 sell off appears to be an Elliott Wave zigzag pattern. This gives the market a higher probability of reaching another new high. Perhaps it meets the trend line in new high territory?

JWagnerFXTrader

A clearly defined price trend channel has been shaping technology prices since the 2009 bottom. $NDX recently broke above the price channel in an overshoot. Overthrow's of the channel are common and can suggest prices have come too far. Couple that signal with the fact that $NDX rang new highs while its brother, $DJI did not. The September correction merely...

JWagnerFXTrader

Though Paypal now has Bitcoin as wind to its back, the price chart is facing some headwinds. The 7 wave up trend is a corrective wave "B" wave in Elliott wave terms (it would be labeled w-x-y). This implies a retest of the $170 low. If prices don't cut towards $170, then this may be the "B" wave of a triangle. Either way, the presure will remain to the...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

If the economy needs stimulus this bad, then the health of it isn't good. Earlier today, President Trump said he wanted efforts placed on the Supreme Court justice in lieu of hammering out a stimulus plan. Stock fell hard. Two weeks ago, I shared an Elliott wave chart that suggested a hard fall in $DJI could be coming soon. My wave labels are slightly...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Gold's price behavior hasn't solidified whether a meaningful top is in place and the US Dollar is about to drive gold lower...OR...whether a final and terminal 5th wave in gold is moving higher. The Elliott wave picture is mixed at the moment. Keep an eye on this blue trend channel. The black labels suggest gold runs up to new highs in a 5th and final wave. The...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

DXY has room to run higher. The Elliott wave pattern suggests we are in a third of a third higher . If so, then DXY should continue a trend towards strength. There is an orange trendline formed over calendar year 2020 in the way. Breaking above the orange trend line is a sign of strength. Failure at the orange trend line or failure below 93.33 will bring...

JWagnerFXTrader

Love it or hate it...Bitcoin's price chart suggests a better buying opportunity may be on the horizon. The position of this triangle and the tap of the upper price channel line suggests this market is poised for a correction. Most of the time when a double zigzag like this appears to start a new trend, the entire pattern is completely retraced. Be on the...

JWagnerFXTrader

$DJI looks to be working on a wave (iii) impulse pattern lower. The current rally appears to be wave ii of (iii). The rally is nearly over and is expected to hold below the wave (ii) high of $28,364. Initial target is in the $22,000-$24,000 range. Depending on the structure of the fall, lower levels are in sight such as the March 2020 low of $18,213 and...

JWagnerFXTrader

It appears Ether has hit an important level upon its August 2020 high. The recent crypto weakness may have more room to run especially if the US equity weakness continues. When ETHUSD is in a bear market, then switch over to Bitcoin. Be mindful that in the USA, any sale of crypto for any reason triggers a tax event. As you can see above, when ETHUSD hits a...

JWagnerFXTrader

Here's a longer-term view on EURUSD. Depending on how you draw the resistance trend line over the past 12 years, this line crosses in price between now and 1.20. The 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the 2018 down trend comes into play in the 1.17-1.20 zone. The higher probability Elliott Wave count in my opinion is that EURUSD finds resistance nearby, then dips...

JWagnerFXTrader

Hi, Bitcoin's sideways grind is meant to lull traders to sleep. There are some bearish patterns bubbling inside this range that points prices towards the low 8000's. We have a completed 5-3 pattern where a bearish impulse wave (the five) is followed by a complex correction higher (the three). This 5-3 pattern began on June 22 and completed on July 8. This...